US airstrikes in Syria are not a game-changer - analysis

Published: DECEMBER 26, 2023 12:11

Updated: DECEMBER 26, 2023 16:37

Mourners react next to the coffins of Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023 (photo credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI) — Mourners react next to the coffins of Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah fighters who were killed by US airstrike in Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq November 22, 2023

(photo credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

Iranian-backed groups have also targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria over the last four years with dozens of attacks.

US airstrikes in Syria targeted Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah overnight from December 25 to 26. The airstrikes follow at least 103 attacks by such groups against US forces in Iraq and Syria in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. These Iranian-backed groups have also targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria over the last four years with dozens of attacks.

In response to an attack by Kataib Hezbollah targeting US forces in Erbil in the Kurdistan autonomous region US Central Command said that it conducted “strikes against Kataib Hezbollah terrorist group targets in Iraq” and struck “multiple facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups.”

In general, the attacks are not deadly, and most involve 107mm. rockets or kamikaze drones, and the US generally does not respond to the attacks. Because several servicemen were wounded, this time, the US retaliated.

Iran continues to use proxies, as it does with Houthis against Red Sea shipping or Hezbollah against Israel from Lebanon. In each case, a balance is created between the attack and the response. For instance, in the Red Sea, there is no response. With Hezbollah, Israel’s responses are proportionate. In Iraq and Syria the US generally prefers only to carry out attacks in Syria, because Syria is seen as a kind of “free zone” in terms of attacks. Iraq is more controversial because US forces are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government.

Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party's flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of Ramadan, in Baghdad. July 25, 2014 (credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

The Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah, have links to political parties and official paramilitaries, meaning they are often either on government salaries or adjacent to the government. This creates another problem. Kataib Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups are linked to the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). Though some of them are US-designated terrorist groups, or their leaders are sanctioned, they have connections to corridors of power.

“Early assessments indicate that these US airstrikes destroyed the targeted facilities and likely killed a number of Kataib Hezbollah militants. There are no indications that any civilian lives were affected. “ The US military said it “will continue to evaluate the effectiveness of these strikes.”

This is important, but it is not a game-changer. The US has eschewed more action or preemptive strikes. Kataib Hezbollah knows the equation, and it knows that if it harms US service members or US contractors, it will receive a proportional response. Proportional responses mean the Iranians know exactly how much they can turn up the heat, before things boil over.