Target: Kataib Hezbollah - why the latest US airstrike is a gamechanger
The killing of an Iranian-backed militia leader in Iraq will likely galvanize Iran’s allies in the country to try to expel the US.
US Central Command said on Wednesday evening that it conducted a strike, killing a leader of the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah. It happened on a busy street in Baghdad, and a car was seen in flames after it was hit.This is a game-changer. It has some parallels with the US strike in January 2020 that eliminated IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. However, it is a game-changer after the last two years of US policy on Iran’s militias in the region.US Central Command said that “forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on US service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on US forces in the region. There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time.” Kataib Hezbollah is believed to be behind the attack that killed three Americans in Jordan on January 27. The US carried out one round of airstrikes last week in which 85 targets were struck.
The US says it will continue to take action against groups that threaten Americans. The strike on Kataib Hezbollah has raised eyebrows. This is because Iranian-backed militias have carried out some 160 attacks on US forces since October 7.Iran mobilized militias in Iraq and Syria to attack the US after Hamas attacked Israel. This was a coordinated move by Iran. Prior to October 7 the militias had also attacked US forces hundreds of times since 2019. Most of the attacks involved small rockets, such as the 107mm or 122mm or drones. Most of them did not result in casualties. However, the attack in Jordan was unprecedented. Iran was gambling that the US would not respond.
Iran has closely watched the Biden administration since January 2021. It has seen how the administration often preferred to strike Iranian-backed groups in Syria, but not in Iraq. The US also tended to shy away from hitting high profile targets.Iranian media has highlighted the attack. Tasnim News says that “Al-Mayadeen’s reporter in Iraq announced that Abu Baqer Al-Saadi, known as Abu Baqer Diyali, one of the commanders of Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, was martyred in an attack on a passenger car in the east of Baghdad.” Al-Ain media in the Gulf also reported on the strike. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which are backed by Iran, also condemned the attack in Iraq.
Iraq strike could signal a shift in US response to Iran
Overall, the strike in Iraq is important and could indicate a shift in how seriously the US is taking the Iranian threat. The US is also carrying out an air campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. This puts the US back in the region in a unique way.Over the last 14 years, the general trend in the US has been to withdraw from the region. For instance, the US sought to withdraw from Iraq in 2011, only to be called back in 2014 to help fight ISIS. The Biden administration wanted to pivot to confront Russia and China, but the region has a way of drawing people back in. Iran’s threats have rapidly increased, and the attacks on Jordan and the Red Sea illustrate this threat.The question now is whether the strike on Kataib Hezbollah can alter the trend. Kataib Hezbollah is the most elite of Iran’s militias. It is closely linked to the IRGC. Its former head, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was a key part of Iran’s nexus in the region from the 1980s. It is not clear if the elimination carried out on February 7 will have the same affect as the January 2020 strike. However, it will likely galvanize Iran’s allies in Iraq to try to expel the US from Iraq. It remains to be seen if they will be successful this time. They have tried to get the US to leave for the last several years.
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