Thousands of launches per day: What does Hezbollah's arsenal look like today?
Reports indicate that in the case of open war, Hezbollah is expected to deploy mortar shells, anti-tank missiles, drones, and UAVs against IDF ground operations.
Hezbollah’s weaponry has seen significant developments in its arsenal of rockets, UAVs, and precision missiles, the Alma Research and Education Center stated in its report released this week.According to updated estimates, Hezbollah now possesses a few thousand precision missiles and rockets out of a total stockpile of 75,000. This precision arsenal is not restricted to the Fateh-110 missiles but includes various types of rockets undergoing precision enhancement processes.The number of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Hezbollah’s possession has also increased. In 2021, the estimate was around 2,000 UAVs. The current estimate suggests approximately 2,500 UAVs, though this may be an underestimate, the Alma Center’s report noted.
Hezbollah’s close connections to Iran remain critical. In addition, the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (CERS) plays a crucial role in developing arms. The facility researches and manufactures advanced precision weapons for Hezbollah in cooperation with Iran.
Strategic advantages of producing weaponry within Lebanon
With this assistance from Tehran, Hezbollah is capable of producing weapons on Lebanese soil, which would be significant in the case of an all-out war with Israel. In such an event, Hezbollah could renew and preserve its arsenal even during the war.
We are updating our estimate of the number of rockets and precision missiles in Hezbollah’s hands. According to our assessment, #Hezbollah possesses a few thousand rockets and precision missiles out of a total of 75,000 rockets and missiles. Read the full weekly update:… pic.twitter.com/eOmXA1PoEC
— Israel-Alma (@Israel_Alma_org) June 10, 2024
The Alma Center’s report noted that in the event of a full-scale conflict with Israel, Hezbollah’s current arsenal would enable it to sustain an average of 3,000 launches (comprising various weapon types) into Israeli territory daily for the first 10 days. Should the war last two months, Hezbollah would be able to maintain an intense launching rate of at least 1,000 per day. These estimates exclude the anticipated launches targeting IDF forces maneuvering within Lebanon.
According to some top IDF officers, however, the estimates from Alma underplay Hezbollah’s capabilities. Military officials have expressed belief that Hezbollah could fire 6,000 to 8,000 times per day for a few days.In the case of open war, the Alma Research and Education Center reported that Hezbollah is expected to deploy mortar shells, anti-tank missiles, drones, and UAVs against IDF ground operations.The report noted that not all of Hezbollah’s launches into Israeli territory will be successful or effective. Some will be intercepted by the IDF before launch, others will land in Lebanese territory or open areas within Israel, and some will be neutralized by air defense systems.However, the report also stated that the sheer volume of launches would likely result in many effective attacks, surpassing previous confrontations from the northern front or the Gaza Strip.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
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