Hezbollah threatens Cyprus in latest Nasrallah speech - analysis

If Israel chooses to act against Hezbollah, it risks having a wider war, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Wednesday in a speech.

Hezbollah has already launched 5,000 rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7. Nasrallah is now threatening to strike all of Israel and muster other members of the Iranian-backed “axis of resistance” against it.

The Lebanese terrorist leader also threatened Cyprus. Cyprus and Israel increasingly have become partners in recent years. Hezbollah threatened Cyprus against letting Israel use its airports. It was not clear why this is an issue that Hezbollah has suddenly become focused on. Israel has conducted joint military training with Cyprus in the past.

Hezbollah has threatened other countries in the past through the use of terrorism and sending agents abroad to Europe, South America, and West Africa. But this was a direct threat to a European country in the Eastern Mediterranean. This shows how strong Hezbollah perceives itself to be.

Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian civil war beginning in 2012. Since then, it has taken on a major role in the Iranian-backed system of proxies and militias in the region.

For instance, Hezbollah has worked with the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. It has also worked with Iranian-backed groups in Syria and in Iraq. It has also sent forces to Syria and opened a “Golan file” of terrorists who operate near the Golan Heights.

As such, Hezbollah now views itself as a regional or global power. It is based in Lebanon, but it is far stronger than Lebanon.

Hezbollah now believes it can muster up to 100,000 volunteers in the region to support it in a war with Israel. Hezbollah itself doesn’t have access to that many fighters because it recruits from the Shi’ite community in Lebanon, and there are not a huge number of available recruits for Hezbollah’s ranks. Nevertheless, it can recruit in Syria and especially Iraq.

Conflict could change face of region, Nasrallah believes

Nasrallah believes this current conflict could change the face of the region. Iran also believes this is the case. Along with Russia and other backers of Hamas, such as Turkey, Qatar, and China, there is a sense that a new regional and global order is emerging.

Hezbollah senses blood in the water, in a sense, and the Iranian-backed sharks are gathering in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack.

Israeli officials have in the past threatened Hezbollah and told it that it should see what Israel has done in Gaza. This is a hint that Israel could visit upon Lebanon the same damage.

Hezbollah has systematically called Israel’s bluff. Israel’s defense minister, foreign minister, and IDF chief of staff have all made comments about the need to deter Hezbollah and bring Israeli residents back to their homes in the North.

Hezbollah will continue its attacks until the war in Gaza ends. It is also preparing the ground for possible escalation.

Israel-Hezbollah tensions have increased recently. The IDF eliminated Sami Taleb Abdullah, commander of Hezbollah’s Nasr Unit, last Wednesday. Hezbollah released drone footage of Israeli sensitive sites along the coast of Israel on Tuesday. The IDF’s chief of staff responded to the footage on Wednesday, warning Hezbollah about Israel’s capabilities. On Tuesday, the commanding officer of IDF Northern Command, Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin, and the head of the Operations Directorate, Maj.-Gen. Oded Basiuk, approved operational plans and held a joint situational assessment in Northern Command headquarters.

Nasrallah’s comments are important. His reference to Cyprus is new. In the past, however, Hezbollah has bragged about being able to mobilize volunteers from Iraq and Syria to support its war on Israel, and it has also threatened to target all of Israel.