What’s behind Nasrallah’s threats to attack Cyprus? - analysis

On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to target Israel with new, previously unrevealed capabilities it had. He also threatened to attack Cyprus if the neighboring island were to help Israel in any future offensive against his terrorist group.

Earlier this week, Hezbollah released a video that it said was footage from one of its surveillance drones flying over Haifa, a city in northern Israel that is relatively far from the border with Lebanon. The footage showed one of Israel’s most important naval ports which includes sensitive military targets.

Nasrallah’s threats were made as the American envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region, in one of his many shuttle-diplomacy attempts to mediate a solution between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah joined Hamas’ war on Israel just hours after the Gaza-based terrorist organization launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7 of last year. Nasrallah vowed to help the Palestinian war against the Jewish state and immediately began firing rockets and using explosive drones aimed at northern Israel. He has repeatedly said his organization will not hold its fire until the war in Gaza is over.

“There is a Gordian knot between the war in Gaza and the conflict in the North and Nasrallah’s recent threats are meant to remind Israel that it should not think of detaching the two arenas,” said Danny Citrinovitch, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran Program. “His messages were meant to make clear he is willing to use all of the means at his disposal, but also to prepare the Lebanese people for a possible escalation.”

In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war which resulted in massive damage in Lebanon. Israel’s current leadership has vowed an even stronger offensive this time around.

Hezbollah aimed to reduce the number of Israeli forces available to fight against Hamas in southern Israel by entangling the military in the North. The Israeli government also decided to evacuate tens of thousands of residents from the North, leaving the area largely deserted with currently no forecast for their return. This has created a de-facto buffer zone within Israel that has shrunk the country and has major ramifications for the future of the area.

France has also been part of the efforts to mediate a solution to the conflict.

The two sides have engaged in a contained conflict, each carefully escalating gradually. But, in recent weeks, since Israel began its operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the fire on the Israel-Lebanon border has also increased. Israel’s Rafah offensive was largely anticipated and was a turning point in its war on Gaza, with the large concentration of Palestinian civilian population in the city. Earlier this month, Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander. The targeted killing prompted a sharp spike in Hezbollah rocket fire toward Israel and brought both sides to the brink—each threatening an all-out war should events escalate further.

Any deviation from the unwritten rules of engagement that both sides have adopted would result in major civilian casualties or the attack of targets deeper inside both territories could lead to the eruption of a major war, one that has the potential of engulfing the whole Middle East in flames. The escalation in recent days makes it look like such a scenario is closer than ever before.

Hezbollah is considered a far more formidable enemy than Hamas, hence Israel’s caution. Backed by Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group is believed to have an arsenal of over 100,000 missiles, many of them precision-guided and with a range that can reach much of Israel. Hezbollah’s soldiers are well-trained in ground operations, after years of participating in the Syrian civil war helping President Bashar Assad quell his enemies.

'Playing with fire'

“Both sides are playing with fire in an area filled with petrol fumes,” said Amatzia Baram, a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics. “When you play with fire, you cannot guarantee control. If one side decides to escalate and the other cannot ignore, this could deteriorate into a greater conflict.”

According to Baram, the chances of a further escalation are slim, with proof of eight months in which both sides “largely controlled the situation.”

The threats against Cyprus are new and are likely an attempt to boast of Hezbollah’s capabilities to reach elsewhere. Cyprus and Israel share a warm relationship, which includes bilateral military drills involving Israeli special forces training on Cypriot soil, and security and energy cooperation. Cyprus is a leading tourist destination for Israelis. Baram points to a high number of Hezbollah covert operatives on the island, which have likely reported to Nasrallah on Israel-Cypriot cooperation. On two occasions last year, Cypriot officials confirmed that plots by Iranian nationals to attack Israelis in Cyprus had been foiled.

“He is warning Cyprus to stay out of the conflict,” Baram said. “He will not hesitate to attack if he will know for sure that Cyprus is giving Israel direct military assistance.”

In response to Nasrallah’s threats, Cyprus’ President Nikos Christodoulides said late Wednesday that his country is “part of the solution and not part of the problem.” Christodoulides denied any involvement in the war.

“This is a surprising development,” Citrinovitch told The Media Line. “This may mean Nasrallah estimates a war is closer than ever and wants to deter both Israel and Cyprus.”

Over the past eight months, Israel has struck at many Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon including military posts, weapons depots, and the targeting killing of senior operatives. Hezbollah has acknowledged the death of at least 300 of its operatives. On the Israeli side, 29 people have been killed in a variety of incidents. The return of the tens of thousands of evacuated residents of the North of Israel does not seem close. This has created a public outcry in Israel with criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also under pressure from hard-line elements of his government to wage a full war against Hezbollah.

“Without reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of an all-out war with Hezbollah increases, be it because of internal pressure or the dynamic of the conflict,” Citrinovitch said. “In the end, the rope could and will tear, and once it does, it will be an escalation that cannot be stopped.”