China doesn’t want Iranian nukes. Why won’t it help Israel? - analysis

If China does not want Iran to get a nuclear weapon, and it is adamant that it does not, why doesn’t it support stronger Western, Israeli, and International Atomic Energy Agency pressure against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear violations?

The Jerusalem Post has spoken to sources on multiple sides of the issue to try to understand Beijing’s position and actions better.

China does not overly trust Iran.

There have been times when Iran insulted China, and Beijing punished Tehran, including when the Chinese supported global sanctions against the Islamic Republic in the early 2010s.

More recently in the winter of this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government temporarily substantially dropped its oil imports from Iran to show dissatisfaction with attempts by Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime to hike up prices.

In addition, while the Communist Party of 2024 is more open to dialogue about aspects of religion, instinctively, Xi and its other leaders are not fans of fanatical religious movements, such as the theocratic clergy like Khamenei who still runs Iran today.

But these are side issues in the broader Chinese calculus.

Overall, Beijing's chief concerns are: 1) preventing Taiwanese independence and eventually annexing/unifying the area in one form or another; 2) expanding its diplomatic and power influence in its ongoing competition with the US, which includes relishing opportunities to reduce US influence; and 3) expanding its economic reach globally to further diversify and empower its business interests.

From Xi’s perspective, most of the standoff that is taking place right between the West, the US, and Israel versus Iran, is an opportunity to undermine Washington.Jerusalem and the Jewish state’s security interests are a minuscule side issue in the grand picture.

Jingping had taken Iran's side against IAEA

What has been surprising since 2021, is that Xi has taken Iran’s side even against the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear inspectors who are viewed as somewhere between neutral to even seeking to downplay conflict with Khamenei as compared to Israel, the US, and France.

Every time the IAEA and its Board of Governors have condemned Iran’s years of violations to try to press it to return to full cooperation with the nuclear inspectors, China (along with Russia) is the only country who votes against it.

On June 5, 20 countries from around the world voted to condemn Tehran and threaten it with potential consequences if it continues to violate its nuclear obligations. Some countries also abstained so they could preserve their business interests with Iran. Yet, abstaining was not enough for Xi.

FROM BEIJING’S perspective, the neutrality and professional expertise of the IAEA is beside the point when it comes to broader politics.

It is now aligned with Khamenei and Moscow against the US and the West for influence, not just regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Besides influence, Iran is a huge source of energy diversification for China and the Chinese have a long history of relations with Iran and Persian rulers before it.

These ties, and the desire to reduce American influence, are so strong that Beijing did not even condemn the Islamic Republic when it launched 350 aerial threats against the Jewish state in April.

This put Xi even more in conflict with Israel’s diplomatic stances than some European countries who criticize Israel regarding the state of the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza, but who heavily criticized Tehran for its direct attack on Israel.

In addition, Czech Counter-Intelligence Agency (BIS) Director-General Michal Koudelka has accused Chinese-affiliated groups of massively promoting disinformation about the current Gaza war in favor of Hamas and against Israel.

China vehemently denies such allegations and argues that unlike many countries in the world, including democratic ones, because of certain cultural issues and law enforcement, there is no antisemitism in China.

There is some hope that once the current war fades from the headlines, any Chinese-affiliated groups spreading disinformation in favor of Hamas will stop because there will be little to gain in terms of undermining the US in the region.

Officials from China are fond of emphasizing a long swath of positive history between China and the Jews, including being a place of refuge from the Germans during World War II.

Further, China prefers to highlight that as of 2022, Beijing was Jerusalem’s second largest country-trading partner at $24 billion (the EU as a whole is larger.)

While trade has dropped between Israel and most countries, including China, significantly during the current war, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) still rates Chinese trade in the billions, and China’s Hainan Airlines is the only airline company that has flown to Israel throughout the war other than the domestic El Al.

Moreover, thousands of Chinese workers have remained in Israel throughout the war continuing work on joint Israel-China infrastructure and other projects.

A recent INSS analysis raised the question of whether Israel should shift its policy more in favor of Taiwan than China due to Taiwan’s ardent support for the Jewish state during the current war but eventually concluded that this would be unwise.

ESSENTIALLY, THE INSS post concluded that China was still a world superpower that Israel should work to get along with in any area where cooperation is possible and that Israel should avoid turning it into an enemy if there was a way to avoid such a situation.

Comparatively, even if Israel may have more in common with Taiwan in terms of democratic values, the INSS post said that foreign policy in a deadly region like the Middle East still must put Israel’s concrete security needs, meaning trying to maintain favorable relations with China, above values questions.

This seems more difficult during the current Israel-Gaza War and as Iran tests the line even further with nuclear violations and the IAEA.

However, if Israel’s choices are a China that is close to Iran, but still wants friendly relations and to do billions in business versus a China that is close to Iran and an active enemy of Jerusalem, it seems obvious that for little Israel, more positive relations with the world’s No. 2 superpower and possible future No. 1 superpower is preferable.

How much room Israel will have to maneuver on China if Washington-Beijing rivalries continue to get worse is uncertain. And there is no question that the US supports Israel far more than China, even when the two countries have big disagreements.

But the fact that Israel has managed to maintain positive ties in some areas even through the US-China trade wars to date means that it is at least possible.

Regrettably, none of this will help Israel solve the Iran issue – that just is not a priority for Xi.

But Israel’s still has two main cards to play against the Islamic Republic: its own viable military threat as well as sanctions pressure from the West.