All eyes on Iran’s reaction to Hodeidah - analysis

The Iranian-backed Houthis have vowed to continue attacks on Israel after the IDF struck the port of Hodeidah in Yemen on Saturday. Iran is a focus of attention now because it backs the Houthis and has pushed them and other groups to increase attacks on Israel over the last nine months.

The Hodeidah port “serves as an entryway for Iranian weapons for the Houthi terrorist regime. The IDF is capable of operating anywhere required and will strike any force that endangers Israelis,” said the IDF.

The Houthis seem intent on calling what they see as Israel’s bluff. Houthi spokesman Yayha Saree vowed on Sunday that the group would strike Israel back.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they will respond to this blatant aggression, and they will not hesitate to strike the vital targets of the Israeli enemy,” Saree said, according to Iranian media IRNA. “He said that the [Israeli] regime’s strikes hit a power station and fuel tanks, all of which were civilian targets. The Yemeni armed forces are preparing for a long war with the Israeli regime.”

Iran is watching the developments in Yemen closely, but it is also positioning itself in the region to benefit from the fresh Israel-Houthi tensions. Iran had mobilized the Houthis back in October to attack Israel. Now there has been blowback, but Iran is confident in its proxies and their abilities. We can see this confidence in Iranian state media headlines today. “Iran army’s air defense force to get new radars, missile interceptors,” reads one headline. This is a headline focused on Iran’s defensive military capabilities. The point Iran is making is it can intercept airstrikes.

The Iranians are bragging at state media IRNA about an “Israel-linked ship still burning 2 days after Yemen’s attack.” That shows that it is juxtaposing this “still burning” with the fires in Hodeidah. Iran is saying “We can make things burn too.” Highlights of “China-Iran, Iran-China container trains relaunched” follow, showing that even as Iran’s proxies face off against Israel, Iran itself is moving closer to China.

Iran as a regional power

Iran views itself as a regional power, and it is using the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas to strike at Israel. But Iran believes it can avoid any blowback inside its borders.

Iranian media also highlighted today that what it calls the “Palestinian resistance” had inflicted a “heavy blow on Zionists in Rafah.” This illustrates that Iran is continuing to watch closely the developments in Gaza. It wants a long war of attrition there where it can continue its attack on Israel and force Israel into a long war in Gaza.

Lastly, pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media highlighted on Sunday that Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian regime leader who is an ally of Iran and Russia, had said that “Russia’s steadfastness in its positions establishes a multi-polar world.” Once again, this is a quote that relates to Iran’s own view of the region and the world. It wants a multi-polar world anchored in ties with Russia and China. It has this through economic groupings such as Brazil Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, two groups Iran has recently joined that are linked to Russia and China.

Therefore, even as Iran sees the message in Hodeidah, it is also working with the Houthis and Hezbollah to change the “equation” with Israel. What that means is that now Iran wants to expand the frontline that the Houthis have. They were attacking southern Israel’s Eilat and the Red Sea. Now they are trying to attack from the sea toward Tel Aviv. This is a new “arena” for Iran as it unites all these proxy groups against Israel to try to surround Israel with threats.

While Iran is supposed to get a message from Hodeidah, it is likely Iran has already factored Israeli retaliation into its views of the Houthis and is pushing the Houthis to escalate. Iran wants to push both Hezbollah and the Houthis to increase their attacks as Hamas takes losses in Gaza. Iran is not ignorant of Israel’s abilities, but it assumes that under the new “equation” carved out by the Houthis it can create tensions without much blowback on Tehran itself.