Israel ready at moment's notice to operate in Lebanon, but both sides are fatiguing - analysis

Education Minister Yoav Kisch's statements to the leaders of the northern border settlements were clear yesterday, highlighting Israel's security arrangements for the near future and possibly for a more extended period. Minister Kisch told settlement leaders, "Unfortunately, the 5784 school year will commence in the North with a clear deployment plan due to the complex security situation in the region."

In the North, there is an understanding that if the school year does not begin in Kiryat Shmona, Shlomi, Metula, and the settlements of the regional councils of the Upper Galilee, Ma'ale Yosef, Mateh Asher, and Mevo'ot Hermon, it could spell a social and economic collapse for the entire settlement and the families from the North. Both families that have been evacuated from their homes and those still residing in the North are experiencing the war day by day, hour by hour.

The decision on the future of the North is not military, but political. The IDF is essentially ready to operate and has been ready to maneuver since the end of May, according to instructions from Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

The completion of preparations included attack plans, force orders, and ammunition. At any given moment, dozens of armed aircraft are on immediate alert at air bases across Israel, ready for strikes in Lebanon.

However, the IDF’s readiness level decreases with every passing day. Every week, the air force and the Northern Command conduct brigade and unit training on the northern border, practicing on the mountainous topography, studying Hezbollah's defense and attack systems, and creating a shift in the combat mindset for commanders and fighters between Gaza and Lebanon.

Why are IDF military capabilities diminishing?

The answer is simply because IDF forces have been worn out by nearly 300 days of fighting in Gaza, maintaining a simultaneous routine of "offensive defense" in the North, and increased security operations in the West Bank.

The IDF is mostly built on the reserve system. Since October 7, dozens of battalions have been engaged in fighting across different fronts. These units are the forces required for maneuvering in the North, alongside the regular forces.

On the other hand, Hezbollah is also under pressure. The Northern Command and Military Intelligence monitor publications in the Lebanese media, social networks, and even billboards in Beirut. The "Lebanon does not want war" campaign is being disseminated in Lebanon, with billboards in Beirut and other locations.

The main slogan of the campaign is "Enough. We are tired." As of now, it is unclear who is behind the campaign, but there are speculations that it involves groups of Lebanese businessmen and various sectors suffering significant economic losses due to the ongoing security situation and wars. The IDF states that the campaign emphasizes the population's fatigue from wars and the destruction they bring, expressing a desire to avoid another war.

It is important to note that the campaign began in December 2023, during which, according to IDF sources, there was an escalation in the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. The campaign's pressure significantly affects Nasrallah and is well utilized by the IDF through, for example, airstrikes in the Beqaa Valley.

Alternatively, IDF strikes on Hezbollah's ammunition warehouses in areas close to civilian regions create a negative perception of Hezbollah among civilians, as it endangers them.

The IDF identifies that Nasrallah instructs to respond with heavy rocket and drone salvos each time the IDF mistakenly hits Lebanese civilians, due to the additional pressure from the population on Hezbollah.

In a situation where populations on both sides of the border are exhausted, with no apparent way out, it is likely that only a specific event, a military mistake from one side of the border towards the civilian population on the other side, will lead to a noisy military escalation that might change the disruptive military status quo that has existed on the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7.