US response to Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams influences regional dynamics - analysis

In the wake of the Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams, the US reaction has been watched closely in the region.This is part of a larger context in which countries have been watching how the US responded to the October Hamas attack and whether the US could get Hamas to release the hostages it took, including American hostages.

Some countries in the region have already hedged their bets on the future of the US role in the region. Others, such as Iran, are openly opposed to the US and have operationalized militias to attack US forces or attack ships.

This is important because perceptions of the US role in the region can sometimes feed the enemies of Israel. After all, those enemies perceive any US weakness or prevarication to be an opening. Similarly when the US projects strength those enemies, such as Hamas or Hezbollah may be less likely to escalate.

Hamas, for instance, did not seem to think it would face real consequences for the October 7 massacre. Its leadership lives in Qatar, which is a US ally. It likely saw how the Taliban had also moved to Qatar and had been able to take over Afghanistan in 2021. That means Hamas may have thought they could leverage the October 7 attack to take over the West Bank.

Hezbollah began its attacks on October 8, a day after the Hamas attack. It appears that the US moving a second aircraft carrier to the region, quickly turning it around after the Hamas attack, deterred Iran from pushing Hezbollah to widen the war.

Israel was worried that Hezbollah could launch an October 7-type attack and evacuated communities in northern Israel in the wake of October 7. Now, as Israel contemplates responding to the deadly Majdal Shams attack, it’s worthwhile to think about this larger context.

Concerns rise over new Hezbollah strategy

In a July 28 statement from US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson on Rocket Attack on Majdal Shams, the NSC noted that “we have been in continuous discussions with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts since the horrific attack yesterday in northern Israel that killed several children playing soccer.”

The statement noted that “this attack was conducted by Lebanese Hezbollah. It was their rocket and launched from an area they controlled.  It should be universally condemned… Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah.” But what comes next? “The United States is also working on a diplomatic solution along the Blue Line that will end all attacks once and for all, and allow citizens on both sides of the border to safely return to their homes.”

This solution appears to mean that any Israeli retaliation should be limited. In addition, it means that Hezbollah will be left in charge in Lebanon. Hezbollah already showed that the US-backed maritime deal of 2022 was largely just a piece of paper and that it did not lead to a reduction in tensions, as was promised at the time.

Therefore Hezbollah expects that it can get away with murdering twelve children in Majdal Shams. This is what Hezbollah wants. It has carved out a new “equation” in northern Israel since October 8. It now claims a right to attack northern Israel whenever it wants. It also links its attacks to Gaza, so that every time there is escalation in Gaza, Hezbollah now says it can join and have a right to attack Israel.

This is a major setback for Israel because Hezbollah now wants a kind of zone of control inside Israel where it can attack at will. This is in contrast to the era when Israel was the one dictating the rules and carrying out a campaign between the wars in Syria. Now it is Hezbollah doing a campaign between the wars inside Israel.

De-escalation and ceasefires are a way to let Hamas continue to control Gaza, and Hezbollah continue to control Lebanon. Regional allies and partners are watching this closely. Saudi Arabia was already non-plussed by US policy on Yemen after 2015. Eventually, Saudi Arabia agreed to a deal with the Houthis and Riyadh reconciled with Tehran.

Together, Iran Saudi and other countries are seeking closer ties with Russia, China, and groups such as the SCO and BRICS. US partners are drifting away or hedging because they see that Iranian-backed groups are allowed to take over Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Those groups now threaten Jordan and other countries. They also see how Israel has not received enough backing since October 7. They are watching the US electoral map closely.

The US has the power to continue to push for its policies in the region. It can project power back to friends and weaken enemies. However, just like during the Cold War, any perception of US weakness will invite adversaries to fill the perceived vacuum. Hezbollah and Hamas, along with the Houthis and militias in Iraq are seeking to press their advantage.

The militias in Iraq and Syria, for instance, have returned to attacks on US forces after a lull since January when Kataib Hezbollah killed three US soldiers in Jordan.

After Majdal Shams all eyes are on how the US responds and how Israel responds. If Israel is restrained and walks into a “limited” response then Hezbollah will conclude that it can kill civilians. It can always say “It wasn’t us” or “mistake” and then get the benefit of the doubt. Killing twelve children in the Golan is an unprecedented attack.

If it becomes the new normal, the way Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks became a new normal and the way Hamas became empowered, or West Bank armed groups have grown, this will have serious consequences.