There he goes again: Erdogan threatens Israel to suit domestic agenda - analysis

Israel is already fighting on seven different fronts: Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. Now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is threatening to make it eight.

Erdogan outdid even his own virulent anti-Israel and often antisemitic rhetoric by threatening on Sunday a possible invasion of Israel.

“We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them,” Erdogan told a meeting of his ruling AK Party.

“There is no reason why we cannot do this... We must be strong so that we can take these steps,” Erdogan added in the televised address, during which he praised the country’s defense industry.

Turkey supported Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and sent troops to Libya in 2020.

If Israel is concerned, it was not reflected in a mocking post Foreign Minister Israel Katz placed on X soon after, with a picture of Erdogan alongside photos of a disheveled, bearded Saddam Hussein soon after he was captured by US forces in Iraq in 2003.

“Erdogan is following in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein by threatening to attack Israel. He should remember what happened there and how it ended,” Katz wrote.

The Turkish foreign ministry followed up with a statement of its own: “Just as Hitler, who committed genocide, met his end - so Netanyahu, who committed genocide, will meet his end.” And around it went.

This was the second mocking post of Erdogan that Katz has posted in a week. Last week, he posted an AI-generated photo of an infant Erdogan sitting on the lap of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after the Shin Bet uncovered a terrorist cell made up of students from Bir Zeit University who received funding and instructions from Hamas based in Turkey.

“Erdogan finances and arms terrorist organizations of Hamas to carry out attacks and murder against Israelis,” Katz wrote. “Erdogan turned Turkey into a state that supports terrorism and subjects Turkey to the Iranian axis of evil in the name of extreme ideology and blatant antisemitism.”

The Turkish president’s threat of military action against Israel -- something that will not win him many points with his NATO allies or in the US Congress -- is not the first time he has done so.

In September 2011, as the diplomatic crisis with Turkey continued following the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident when IDF commandos raided a flotilla trying to break Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza and nine Turkish citizens were killed, Erdogan warned that Turkish warships would escort Turkish vessels carrying aid to Gaza.

Erdogan said that Turkey would no longer “let these ships be attacked by Israel.”

That, too, was a veiled threat of military action -- one that Erdogan did not carry out. In contrast to how Katz responded to Erdogan’s recent threat of military action, then Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor responded by saying, “This is a statement well worth not commenting on.”

At that time, and for several years afterward, official Israel remained, for the most part, silent in the face of Erdogan’s frequent provocations. Katz, however, has brought a completely different approach -- responding to Erdogan’s rhetoric with blistering responses of his own.

Erdogan’s anti-Israel and antisemitic flourishes have, in the past, often been tied to domestic considerations.

Then-deputy foreign minister Tzachi Hanegbi -- who today is Is head of the national security council -- pointed this out in 2014, just before that year’s Turkish presidential election that Erdogan, then “only” the country’s prime minister, won handily. 

Turkey’s leadership, especially Erdogan, employs the “manipulative, populist tactic of insulting the Jews” before each election, Hanegbi said at the time.  This was true in 2014 and has been true in numerous local and presidential elections in Turkey since then.

Even though no election is on the horizon today, Erdogan’s threats are not divorced from domestic Turkish considerations.

Over the last few months, Erdogan has made significant overtures to Syrian President Bashar Assad, seeking to rekindle relations and even inviting the Syrian dictator for a visit.

The overtures stem from numerous different reasons.

The first has to do with domestic pressures, with an important factor being the rising tide of sentiment against the estimated 3.5 million Syrian refugees in the country. Last month, anti-Syrian riots took place that were triggered by the arrest of a Syrian national accused of sexually assaulting a young Syrian girl.

During one of the protests surrounding the assault, protestors called for Erdogan to step down because of his refugee policy -- an indication of how this issue is political dynamite inside the country.

One of the reasons for a rapprochement with Assad -- who Erdogan sent troops to help overthrow and in 2017 called a “terrorist” -- is to come to an agreement with him so he takes back some of the refugees.

Reasons for reconciliation?

Another reason for Erdogan’s interest in reconciliation is the concern that Donald Trump might win the November US presidential election and then pull US troops out of northeastern Syria. In that case, he is worried about Kurdish groups potentially gaining control there and and posing a threat to Turkey. Both Damascus and Ankara want to limit the independence of Kurdish groups there.

Regional developments are also playing a part, with Iraq -- under the influence of Iran -- nudging Turkey and Syria toward reconciliation. The ongoing war in Gaza and the potential spillover effect into Lebanon -- which has gained urgency in recent days -- has created incentives between the two countries to resolve their hostilities, manage possible fallout, and possibly even work together as part of new alliances.

Assad may be more open to these overtures now that Israel appears on the brink of significant action against Hezbollah since this will drain away some of the assistance and support he has come to rely on from both Hezbollah and Iran, leaving him more vulnerable and opening up the possibility of a revitalized insurgency against his regime.

Erdogan’s threats against Israel must be seen within this prism as well. He is threatening Jerusalem -- likely empty threats -- but the man he is trying to impress is sitting in Damascus.