Islamic State resurgence concerns US-coalition forces in Iraq, Syria - report

US soldiers in Syria are struggling to contain an Islamic State (ISIS) resurgence in areas of the country previously cleared of the group, according to a Monday exclusive by the Wall Street Journal.

ISIS is reportedly regaining strength in the North Arabian Desert, also known as the Jordanian steppe, where it is training recruits to become suicide bombers with the aim of attacking allied troops, the report claimed.

The article cited US, Kurdish, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) sources who believe that ISIS is attempting to revive its Islamist Caliphate. The coalition defeated ISIS territorially in March 2019.

In the past year, the rate of attacks by Islamic State fighters has doubled in both Syria and Iraq, including attacks on security checkpoints and car bombings.

The US Air Force has conducted airstrikes on Islamic State cells and provided aerial surveillance to assist SDF forces. US troops have also conducted missions to kill or capture the group’s leaders, according to the report.

“This year has been the worst year since we defeated Islamic State,” said Gen. Rohilat Afrin, co-commander of the SDF, to the WSJ during an interview at a US commando base in northeast Syria. “No matter how much you knock them down, they’ll try to get up again.”

So far in 2024

In the first six months of 2024, IS claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq and is significantly increasing its manpower by training children. The group's resurgence is not limited to the Middle East; its subgroups have carried out attacks in Europe, such as the Moscow concert massacre.

The report also noted that IS's new tactics differ from its previous methods. Instead of large groups of militants charging villages with tanks and machine guns, the group has shifted to guerrilla-style tactics involving small cells with rifles and booby traps. This poses a new challenge to coalition forces.

The US-SDF coalition has reportedly captured 233 Islamic State fighters in 28 operations so far this year. The US maintains 900 personnel in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq.

In one joint operation, which required extensive planning and coordination, the SDF built model compounds of suspected militant bases and rehearsed the assault. A subsequent raid by 100 soldiers, with full support from US aerial forces and command centers, resulted in dozens of suspects being detained without any shots fired. American commandos then seized the suspects' mobile phones to trace further members of the cell.

With the surge in ISIS attacks, many US allies are concerned about discussions of a US withdrawal from the region. US troops are under pressure to leave Iraq and Syria, and discussions are reportedly taking place in Washington to consider possible exit plans.

On Monday, the semi-official Iranian Tasnim News reported that US coalition forces may withdraw from all of Iraq except the Kurdistan region by September 2025, with a complete withdrawal from Kurdistan by September 2026.

According to Tasnim's reporter in Iraq, the Iraqi foreign minister is expected to visit Washington in September 2024 to discuss ending the coalition force presence in the country.

“We’ll see chaos like we’ve never seen before,” Brig. Gen. Ali al-Hassan, spokesman for northeast Syria’s US-allied internal security force, told the WSJ. “Any withdrawal will cause the immediate activation of sleeper cells.”

Iranian-backed militias frequently launch explosive drones at US bases in the region. In January, an attack on US forces in Jordan killed three soldiers and wounded several others. This month, attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq have also resulted in injuries.

History of Islamic State

The Islamic State, a Sunni Muslim group, emerged as an al Qaeda offshoot in 2003, fighting US forces after the invasion of Iraq. The US withdrew from Iraq in 2011, leaving a power vacuum and political instability, according to the WSJ.

ISIS then seized 38,000 square miles of Syrian and Iraqi land, declaring it a caliphate, and subjected 12 million people to its rule. The group minted its own currency, imposed taxes, and brutally enforced its laws, crucifying those it executed. Yazidi women were taken as slaves and sold, and Islamic State enforcers beat those who failed to attend mosque, a Syrian business owner told the WSJ.

In 2017, Iraqi government forces and Kurdish fighters recaptured the Iraqi city of Mosul after a fierce battle, and SDF troops retook Raqqa in Syria, once the Islamic State’s capital. In 2019, the SDF recaptured the last ISIS stronghold, the Syrian town of Baghouz.

ISIS has attempted to free its 9,000 fighters still held in prisons in Syria by staging breakouts and using suicide bombers to breach the gates of fortified jails. Although these efforts have been unsuccessful, they demonstrate the group’s commitment to regaining strength, according to the WSJ.

“I can’t imagine what would happen if they actually started a prison breakout,” said al-Hassan, the internal-security force spokesman.

Recruiting children

ISIS also sees the 43,000 displaced people in Syrian and Iraqi camps as potential new recruits, including the wives and children of jailed Islamic State fighters.

At the al-Hol camp, children are found playing with coloring books that contain drawings of hand grenades, AK-47 rifles, and explosive suicide vests. According to the WSJ, US soldiers have obtained photos of children attending IS-themed parties with the ISIS flag displayed on their walls.

“They’re trying to brainwash them as kids, so when they grow up they’ll be willing to kill without hesitation,” Gen. Rohilat told the WSJ.

Security officials informed the WSJ that boys are smuggled out of the camps when they reach fighting age and are then trained as militants in the desert.

The resurgence of ISIS is, therefore, of great concern to US forces.

“Attention has shifted elsewhere,” a US Special Forces officer said. “But now is not the time to take our eyes off of northeast Syria.”