‘Kabul is Harboring Terrorists’: Rise of IS-KP in Afghanistan ‘greatest external threat’

[Islamabad] A senior UN official has issued a stark warning about the escalating strength of the Islamic State group’s Afghanistan-based Khorasan Province branch (IS-KP), cautioning that the organization’s ability to launch attacks far beyond Afghanistan’s borders poses a significant and growing threat.

Speaking to the UN Security Council on Thursday, UN Undersecretary-General for Counterterrorism Vladimir Voronkov highlighted IS-KP’s alarming capability to carry out terrorist attacks abroad.

He specifically referenced IS-KP’s deadly attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue near Moscow in March, which claimed 145 lives. That attack marked Russia’s worst terrorist violence in two decades.

Over the past six months, Voronkov said, IS-KP has increased its recruitment efforts and “enhanced its financial and logistical capacities, partly by leveraging support from the Afghan and Central Asian diaspora.” He described IS-KP as Europe’s “greatest external terrorist threat.”

Voronkov also noted a resurgence of the Islamic State group’s core structure in the Middle East. In Africa, too, IS-West Africa Province and IS-Sahel Province have expanded and consolidated their areas of operations, he said.

He urged all UN member states to collectively prevent Afghanistan from becoming a global terrorist hub. “Afghanistan mustn’t once again become a breeding ground for terrorism,” he said.

Growing IS-KP threat despite Taliban denials

In March 2023, Gen. Michael Kurilla, who heads the US Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that IS-KP could attack Western interests abroad in as little as six months. He said that some of the hundreds of thousands of US citizens living abroad could be in the range of an attack.

The Afghan Taliban rejected the UN official’s concerns about looming threats from IS-KP. “We reject such statements,” Zabihullah Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban’s chief spokesperson, told The Media Line. “The Islamic Emirate has taken strict action against IS-KP. Their hideouts have been eliminated.”

He said that Afghan special forces are actively pursuing the few remaining IS-KP members, “assuring the world that there is no longer any threat emanating from Afghan soil.”

IS-KP, also referred to as IS-K or ISIS-K is a regional affiliate of the Salafi jihadist Islamic State group. The Khorasan Province branch operates primarily in South Central Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistani tribal areas adjacent to Afghanistan. Originally established in 2015, IS-KP quickly became one of the most violent and radical offshoots of the broader IS movement.

Much of IS-KP’s membership consists of defectors from various terrorist groups, notably the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The group also recruits religiously motivated youth in Afghanistan.

The resurgence of IS-KP in Afghanistan has emerged as a significant concern for regional security and stability. The group has carried out numerous deadly attacks, the most devastating being during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. In that attack, an IS-KP suicide bomber targeted Kabul’s airport, killing 13 US troops and at least 170 civilians.

In January 2024, IS-KP claimed to have killed more than 90 people in the southern Iranian city of Kerman, the deadliest attack in Iran in decades. In March 2024, the group killed at least 145 in the Crocus City Hall concert venue near Moscow.

The group is led by Sanaullah Ghafari, better known as Shahab al-Muhajir. Al-Muhajir was originally thought to have been killed by Afghan forces in a 2023 attack, but it later emerged that he escaped to Pakistan’s Balochistan province. He is one of the world’s most wanted terrorists, with the US State Department offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on the IS-KP leader.

Dr. Shabana Fayyaz, chair of the defense and strategic studies department at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, told The Media Line that Kabul’s claims not to be harboring terrorists are false. “It appears that the Afghan Taliban regime may either lack the will or the capability to address the presence of global terrorist groups, which contributes to a heightened security situation,” Fayyaz said.

“ISIS-K, based in Afghanistan with various forms of support, could undermine the state’s sovereignty both within the region and beyond.” She said that the international community ought to work together in order to address the issue.

Dr. Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based scholar and analyst, said that IS-KP is likely to remain a major terrorist threat for some time. One factor behind the group’s success is its “franchise” model, which allows anyone to set up a branch and commit attacks in its name, Korybko told The Media Line.

“Despite being transnational and with no official headquarters, it’s popularly thought that the group has a presence in parts of Afghanistan from where it trains members and plots attacks,” he said. “The ideal solution is to arm the Taliban and share intelligence to defeat IS-KP, but no international community has shown political will due to [the Taliban’s] perceived extremist nature.”

Russia could be the first country to seriously engage with the Taliban on this issue, Korybko said. “If this happens, it could significantly contribute to the global fight against terrorism, though the West would likely frame it negatively to discredit Russia,” he noted.

Lucas Webber, a counterterrorism expert at the New York-based Soufan Center, said that IS-KP is using anti-Israel sentiment to grow its base and incite followers to carry out attacks. “In 2024 alone, the group has carried out at least three global terrorist attacks - in Iran, Turkey, and Russia - while an increasing number of IS-KP-linked plots have been thwarted in Europe, Central Asia, and beyond,” he told The Media Line.

He noted that the group is trying to exploit regional instability, including violent developments in Bangladesh, for its own gain. London-based South Asia expert Umer Karim said that harsh Afghan repression of Salafists has led many anti-Taliban Afghans to join IS-KP.

“Similarly, this group is being joined by radical elements who wish to carry on their attacks on the West even after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan,” he told The Media Line. He said that the Taliban has failed to properly strengthen Afghan institutions, leading to an inability to counter IS.

“Due to multiple factors, ISIS has become a security challenge for local, regional, and extra-regional stakeholders, and it can only be countered by increased levels of regional cooperation,” Karim said.