Iraq returns to the spotlight as Iran prods Iraqi militias to move against US forces - analysis

Iraq is wary of being drawn into a wider regional conflict between Iran and Israel or Iran and the US. Reports indicate that Iraq is spreading this message to countries in the region, such as the UAE. Nevertheless, Iran is prodding Iraq-based militias to launch attacks on Israel and use Iraq as a base. 

The Iraqi militias have done this in the past, but the recent tensions in the region have put a spotlight on these moves. Iran may also be telling its militias to hold off on attacks on US forces in Iraq for now, although it had prodded them to carry out attacks between October 2023 through January. In January, Kata’ib Hezbollah (aka the Hezbollah Brigades) in Iraq launched drones at Jordan, killing three American soldiers.

On Tuesday, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said that Baghdad is moving internally and externally to prevent the expansion of the conflict, Al-Ain media reported. He warned that “pushing Iraq into a state of war is a danger that threatens the stability of the country,” stressing that “the government and political parties understand this issue.” According to the same report, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has sought to convince the United States not to respond to a recent attack on US forces at the Ain Al-Asad base in Iraq.

Attacks on US forces in recent years 

The US has forces in Iraq that have been there since 2014 to help with the war on ISIS. The Iranian-backed militias began their attacks on US forces in 2019 after the war on ISIS wound down. In January 2020, the US killed IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Since then, most US forces have moved to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, with only limited personnel in Baghdad and the Asad base. The militias shifted their attacks to focus on the Kurdistan region in 2021. In addition, the militias have attacked US forces in Syria.

The reports at Al-Ain express concern that if the US withdraws from Iraq, ISIS could begin a resurgence. The US elections are approaching, and Iraq will be paying close attention. An expert told Al-Ain that “the Iraqi [pro-Iran militia] factions, especially the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah Brigades, the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, the al-Nujaba Movement, and others will participate in the battle if it breaks out and will stand alongside Tehran, which means a large-scale clash between American forces and the factions.” He was speaking about the possibility of escalation, in which these forces would take part in actions against Israel if Iran-Israel tensions spill over. This is what Iraq fears now.

On Wednesday, the Iranian state media IRNA reported that one of the Iraqi groups linked to Iran claimed it had “attacked an important Israeli target in the Port of Eilat with several drones. In a statement on Wednesday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said that it targeted the Eilat port, also known as Umm al-Rashrash, in the occupied territories with several drones.”