How did a Houthi missile evade Israeli and American hi-tech radar? - analysis

A Houthi missile seemingly evaded Israel’s advanced detection systems on Sunday morning. Despite advanced systems, it wasn’t until the missile was over Israeli airspace that it was finally brought down, raising questions about potential failures in the security systems in place.

The Houthis do not have their own ballistic missile industry. Their entire stock comes from Iran. What is known in Yemen as “Tufan” is essentially the Iranian Ghadir missile, itself a development of the Shahab-3. For 25 years, the Arrow system has been developed and upgraded to be able to intercept it.

This missile has a range of about 2,000 km., enough to cover the distance from Yemen to Israel. The missile is transported from its storage site by truck to the launch site, where it is assembled. The missile’s target is predetermined and cannot alter its course or correct it during flight. In contrast to the Shahab, the preparations for its launch, mainly filling the first stage with fuel, take only about 30 minutes instead of several hours.

The missile is launched vertically and follows a ballistic trajectory, meaning it travels in an arc. It flies through the atmosphere with its engine still running, propelling it forward. During flight, the first stage separates, and the second stage reenters from the atmosphere after exhausting its fuel, continuing to accelerate due to gravity.

Maximum 15 minutes from Yemen to Israel

From northern Yemen, the missile requires only 12-15 minutes to reach central Israel. Its pre-launch weight is estimated at 15-17 tons, but the warhead itself weighs about 650 kg., a significant explosive charge that, combined with its impact speed, can cause severe damage to civilian and also lightly protected military structures.

There are detection stages for such a missile, which appear to have malfunctioned this morning. When the missile is erected for launch, it is in an open area visible to Israeli and American reconnaissance satellites, which are supposed to monitor potential launch sites.

When the missile is launched, the intense heat generated by its engine is detected by the American missile warning satellite network, and the information is supposed to be relayed to the IDF.

Several radar systems are supposed to detect and track the missile when it is on its trajectory toward Israel. 

These include radar from the American and Israeli navy in the Red Sea, the long-range X-band radar produced by Raytheon and located in the Negev, operated by American troops, and finally, the Arrow system radar. 

It is still unclear whether the missile was detected in time and why it was not intercepted by the Arrow system as planned.