Hezbollah vows revenge after deadly pager attack on members - analysis

Hezbollah has vowed to avenge the death and wounding of its members in the pager attack on September 17 and the subsequent incident of exploding radios that took place the next day. It’s not clear how many Hezbollah members were killed, but the number appears to be more than two dozen. Hezbollah says it will retaliate in a way that Israel cannot yet imagine, according to a report at the Hezbollah media Al-Manar.

The Lebanese-based terrorist group has an equation that it looks to for attacks on Israel. In essence this means the group follows certain “rules” in the war it launched on October 8 when it began attacks on the Jewish state to support Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has carried out attacks on northern Israel, usually at a depth of a few miles. Whenever it believes Israel has carried out a strike in Lebanon that represents an escalation, Hezbollah then escalates proportionately. It couches this in claims that it is merely responding.

Throughout the 11 months of conflict, Hezbollah has said that certain incidents go beyond the tit-for-tat strikes. For instance, the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in July was a redline. Shukr was only killed because of the Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and teens. However, Hezbollah didn’t apologize for that attack and pretended it was not responsible. As such, it then opened an “account” to pay back Israel for the killing of Shukr. Retaliation came on August 25 when Hezbollah tried to launch thousands of rockets at Israel. Israel preempted that attack with airstrikes and only several hundred rockets were launched.

Hezbollah has often said that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, it will stop some of its attacks on Israel. But it keeps certain accounts open, leading to an endless waiting game for retaliation. Now it says that the pager attacks represent another one of these open accounts. Having lost more than two dozen members in the attacks, it will want to even the score. Hezbollah has already lost 450 fighters since October, 2023; now it has suffered its single largest loss in one day fighting Israel. In fact, this may be its worst loss in history in one day. “Another reckoning will come,” Hezbollah says.

HEZBOLLAH SAYS that the pager attack will not reduce its commitment to attacks on Israel that are part of the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, an Iranian medical team has arrived in Lebanon to help assist the injured. Reports say injured are also being evacuated to Iran. This means that Israel can expect daily rocket attacks in the near-term as Hezbollah plots a larger attack against Israel as retaliation.

Short-term tactical victories

This creates a new waiting game in Israel. In August, Jerusalem was also waiting, expecting retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Shukr in Beirut. Iran has also vowed a response after its ambassador to Lebanon was injured by an exploding pager. This likely creates another reason for Hezbollah and Iran to coordinate a larger attack on Israel.

Israel will now be forced to “wait” and react once again. This has become a cycle in this long war that began on October 7. Because Israel currently prefers short-term tactical victories over a knock-out blow aimed at Hamas or Hezbollah, it is therefore in a long war of attrition.

There is no clear strategy to end the threats once and for all. This leaves the tempo largely in Iran’s hands. Iran gets to decide when and where to escalate and Israel responds. For instance, on September 18, Iraqi militias launched a drone into Israeli airspace that was shot down by the air force. In addition, on September 15, the Houthis in Yemen launched a missile that entered Israeli airspace and exploded, causing sirens throughout central Israel.

Iran is dictating the tempo of the multi-front war. Israel is always waiting and then responding. In many cases, it is waiting a very long time to do so, or not responding at all. The pager incident is an example of Israel taking the initiative, albeit briefly. However, it is not clear if there will be a follow-through.

Hezbollah is indicating it can sit and wait and then retaliate at a time of its choosing. That is the kind of rhythm this conflict has seen. It is not clear if this suits Israel or the Iranian axis. Does Jerusalem benefit from a long, endless war where Tehran constantly finds new ways to threaten it? Historically, Israel’s leaders preferred short wars that let citizens get back to a normal life. Today’s Israel is not 1967, though; today Israel prefers long wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others. This has led to a retaliation waiting game for Israelis, who must wait and see what Hezbollah or Iran has in store next them.