Aqil and Shukr eliminated: Which Hezbollah leaders remain in Israel's crosshairs? - analysis

On Friday, Israel officially took direct responsibility for the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil in Beirut, signaling a potential change in strategy and indicating the possibility of further targeted eliminations. Following the eliminations of Aqil and Fuad Shukr at the end of July, the question arises as to who remains in Israel’s crosshairs among Hezbollah’s senior leaders.

Is Nasrallah a target?

For many years, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s name has been mentioned as a target, with some arguing he should have been eliminated during the Second Lebanon War.

However, his elimination carries significant consequences, as seen after the killing of Hezbollah’s former Secretary-General Abbas Musawi.

Eliminating Nasrallah would likely trigger a full-scale war, which Israel’s government appears to be avoiding at this stage, based on its current actions.

Instead, Israel seems intent on imposing a resolution on Hezbollah to avoid such a war. However, if a large-scale conflict were to break out or if intelligence suggests Iran is pushing for war—a scenario considered unlikely at this time—there’s no doubt Nasrallah would be a key target.

Distinction between leadership levels

Since the beginning of the conflict, Israel has made a clear distinction between Hezbollah's political, religious, and military-operational leadership when it comes to targeted strikes.

The political and religious leadership, including Nasrallah, may face elimination if Israel assesses that Hezbollah is headed toward a full-scale war.

Who could be on the target list?

Ali Karaki: Commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, whose two divisional commanders were killed by the IDF.

Karaki is now considered one of Hezbollah’s top military figures, especially after Aqil’s assassination. He has extensive knowledge of IDF operations and Hezbollah’s strategic weaponry.

Talal Hamia (Abu Jaafar): Head of Unit 910, often referred to as Hezbollah’s "Mossad." A senior figure close to Nasrallah, Hamia has been considered for the role of Hezbollah's chief of staff and is deeply familiar with the organization’s foreign operations and intelligence capabilities.

He has been involved in several terrorist attacks.

Mohammad Haidar: One of Nasrallah’s senior advisors, responsible for arms smuggling from Iran, Syria, and other regions to Lebanon. Haidar has significant operational experience and previously commanded Hezbollah forces in Syria.

What is the purpose of targeted strikes?

Both Israel and Hezbollah, under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, want to avoid an escalation.

The recent assassination was meant to send a clear message to Nasrallah that Israel is determined to achieve quiet and is willing to go to great lengths to achieve the goal of the war: ensuring the safe return of Israel's northern residents to their homes.

For this to happen, Hezbollah must detach itself from Gaza. If Nasrallah continues his war of attrition, the targeted killings will continue. Should he escalate further, Israel may be forced to introduce more aggressive tactics into the conflict.