Iran’s multi-front strategy faces its greatest test - analysis

Iran’s multi-front strategy against Israel is facing its biggest challenge so far in the war it launched on October 7. Hamas’s attack was the first major act in Iran’s plan for a wider regional assault on Israel. While Hamas was massacring Israelis, Iran put into action the rest of the multi-front operation, pushing Hezbollah to begin its attacks from the north.

What is important to understand is that the war that Israel is now fighting with Hezbollah began because of Iran’s multi-front war on the Jewish state. Hezbollah launched medium- and long-range rockets at Israel on Sunday, but it is worth recalling that the terrorist group began its war against Israel on October 8.

Days later, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria began attacking US forces, and shortly after, Iraqi militias primed drones for use against Israel.

Iran’s goal has been to “unite the arenas.” This means that it has been working with the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and militias in Iraq and Syria to coordinate attacks on Israel.

It paved the way for the October war by facilitating meetings between Hamas, Hezbollah, and PIJ in Lebanon, assisting the Houthis in acquiring long-range drones and ballistic missiles, and enhancing the arsenals of both Hamas and Hezbollah. After October 7, Tehran’s initial plan was that Hamas would push Israel into a war of attrition, and then Hamas and PIJ would increase their attacks in the West Bank.

The IDF has now routed most of Hamas’s largest terror structures in the Gaza Strip, eliminating Hamas battalions and commanders and reducing the terrorist group’s rocket threat. The IDF also took over the Philadelphi Corridor, making it harder for Hamas to rearm. In the West Bank as well, the military has preempted a growing insurgency by groups in the northern region via increasingly strong raids aimed at Jenin, the Nur Shams Camp, Tubas, and other areas between July and September.

The IDF is now better able to focus on Hezbollah. In essence, what has happened is that Iran sought to pull off a multi-front war, but Israel has been working to defeat the Islamic Republic’s proxies one at a time. It was not always clear if this would work because Hamas continues to control much of Gaza, and the threat from the West Bank remains. In addition, the Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones at Israel, such as the drone attack in July on Tel Aviv and the missile attack targeting central Israel on September 15.

Hezbollah also escalated. In July, it killed 12 children and teens in the Golan Heights. The IDF assassinated a Hezbollah commander in response. The Lebanese-based terrorist group then tried to launch hundreds of rockets at Israel on August 25; it carried out more large barrages of rockets in late August and early September. There were rumors that Hezbollah might push out Israel’s defense minister, who was known for wanting to institute a tougher policy against the group.

Then, on September 17, thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded, and the next day, its walkie-talkies exploded. On September 20, the IDF eliminated an estimated 16 Hezbollah commanders, decimating its top command structure. The group is fearful, chaotic, and flailing.

The big test

This is a big test for Iran, which dictated the tempo of the fronts for 11 months, from Iraq to Yemen. Tehran tried to ring Israel with threats, making it hard for it to defeat any of them. A knockout blow against one of the Iranian proxies might help Israel regain the deterrence that it once had. It might also send a message to Iran that it can’t ring Israel with pawns.

Hezbollah has now suffered major blows. On Sunday, it fired longer-range missiles at Israel and hit the Ramat David airbase, setting off sirens across hundreds of square kilometers in the North and sending large numbers of people to shelters, from Nazareth to Shefa’Amr to the Jezreel Valley.

Hezbollah is still scrambling to find a way to respond. It had planned a long war in which it would have an equation and slowly escalate like an anaconda snake, gradually seeking its prey. However, the Iranian proxy’s slow method has allowed Israel to seek an advantage and potentially turn the tables on the terror group. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of rockets, but if it can’t use them, then Iran’s multi-front strategy will be in trouble.