Hezbollah's strategic gamble in terrorism: Is it paying off? - analysis
Hezbollah is likely gambling on a war of attrition until it gets the order from Iran to increase its attacks in quantity and quality.
Hezbollah has been in chaos since the exploding pagers caused thousands of injuries to members of the group on September 17.
It lurched from the chaos of that day to fear of more exploding devices on September 18 when walkie-talkies used by the grew blew up.
After losing some two dozen killed in these incidents, it lost the commanders of its Radwan unit in a Beirut airstrike on September 20—Hezbollah has only barely been able to strike back at Israel.
Its worst barrages of rockets were in the morning of September 22 when it hit areas near Haifa.There is no doubt Hezbollah wants to strike back. However, it appears so far its launching capability has been suppressed by the IDF.
The IDF has said it has targeted numerous launchers. In addition, a video on September 23 released by the IDF shows a strike on a long-range cruise missile that may have been able to strike up 200km inside Israel.
The IDF has called on residents of Lebanon to evacuate homes and areas where Hezbollah hides weapons.
What are Hezbollah’s tactics and strategies today?
Hezbollah has received messages of support from Iran’s other proxies. It appears the Iraqi-based militias that are backed by Iran are also increasing their attempts to strike at Israel.
They launched a drone on September 18 and launched cruise missiles on September 22. The Houthis have also expressed support in a number of messages.The pro-Iranian al-Mayadeen says that Hezbollah has used the Fadi-1 and Fadi-2 missiles to strike at areas east of Haifa. Hezbollah says it has targeted the Ramat David airbase.
It had previously published drone footage of this area, so it was a known target. Reports at IRNA in Iran say Hezbollah believes it struck as deep as 60km inside Israel. These are its longest-range attacks.
However, it only used a few missiles in these attacks. Overall, it does not seem to be able to fire more than 150 or more missiles a day.
It has either lost some of its launch capability, can’t coordinate it due to losses, or has not yet shown its entire capability. Although it has a large arsenal, that is not the same as a launch capability.Iran’s IRNA media has boasted that Hezbollah was able to close the port of Haifa due to missile threats.
What is Hezbollah's goal?
It is clear that the goal of Hezbollah is to slowly expand the attempt to terrorize and harm the economy of Israel.
The goal is to present a multi-front threat and use different munitions. However, Hezbollah appears to be having trouble coordinating its activities.
This could be due to its losses, and it’s likely a problem the group can overcome. Hezbollah planned for years to confront Israel. However, reports indicate it does not want a larger war.
Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah intact as a long-term threat. It has invested a lot in this group and doesn’t want to risk losing the capabilities that Hezbollah has acquired.
These include drones, long-range missiles, and precision-guided munitions.
Therefore, Hezbollah’s tactic may be to preserve much of its firepower but use some of its quality and longer-range weapons and drones in a kind of “drip-drip” that threatens Israel and keeps businesses and schools closed.
Hezbollah is likely gambling on a war of attrition until it gets the order from Iran to increase its attacks in quantity and quality.
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