Even with a potential wider-scale war looming, Israel has strategic advantages, experts say

For the past several months, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated, with attacks on northern Israel happening almost daily. Hezbollah has steadily increased its rocket and drone barrages since October 2023, prompting Israel to respond with extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The conflict has led to the evacuation of over 90,000 Israelis from the north, with entire communities now displaced.

The Israeli military intensified its strikes on Monday, targeting over 400 Hezbollah positions, including rocket launchers and command centers. In return, Hezbollah fired over 300 rockets deep into northern Israel, many of which were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.

The conflict took another alarming turn on Wednesday when Hezbollah launched a Qader-1 ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. The missile, which was intercepted by Israel’s David’s Sling defense system, targeted a Mossad installation. Many are left wondering if Israel and Hezbollah are on track to enter a full-scale war.

Prof. Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, spoke to The Media Line about how the regional context, especially Iranian influence, is shaping Hezbollah’s actions.

“Israel has inflicted a blow on Hezbollah—manpower, commanders, and its image both inside Lebanon and in the wider region,” Rabi said. “Iran is worried Hezbollah might take dramatic steps that could be irreversible for them. They don’t want to lose what they’ve built in Lebanon, nor do they want to get dragged into a full-scale regional war, which is against their interests.”

He explained that Iran is playing “both sides of the coin” in the conflict.

“On the one hand, they’re trying to drag Israel into a war of attrition in the north without escalating to a broader regional conflict. On the other hand, they’re waging a diplomatic war, hoping the US opts for a diplomatic solution,” he said. “Iran is gambling on the American administration’s preference for diplomacy.”

Israel Ziv, a retired general in the Israeli military, told The Media Line that Hezbollah is currently reassessing its strategy after heavy losses.

“They’re not sure of their own situation, mainly because they’ve lost so many people from their chain of command,” Ziv said. “First, they’re trying to realize their real situation—how much they’ve lost, not just in terms of people, but assets as well.”

Is the cost too high for Hezbollah?

He said that Hezbollah is now grappling with the unexpected cost of its attacks on Israel. “It’s far more than they anticipated,” he noted.

Iran doesn’t appear likely to get more directly involved in the conflict, which “is a huge disappointment” for Hezbollah, he said.

Rabi noted that Israel has used creative methods of warfare over the past 10 days. “Hezbollah is not used to this kind of modus operandi. Israel is keeping them on their toes. What’s happening now is a real surprise for Hezbollah,” he said.

He said that Hezbollah’s attack on a Mossad installation today crossed a red line for Israel.

Ziv said that despite the intense exchanges, the conflict hasn’t yet reached its full potential.

“Would I call this a full-scale conflict? No, not yet,” he said. “They’ve been trying to maintain a boundary at Haifa. After hitting one of their commanders, they fired a missile towards Tel Aviv, but it was more about sending a message.”

The public opinion in Lebanon regarding the conflict is mixed, Rabi said. “You can’t talk about the Lebanese people as a monolith. In Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah has its supporters, but many Lebanese—particularly in the north and places like Tripoli—are thrilled to see Hezbollah suffer losses,” he explained.

“They view Hezbollah as an Iranian proxy, and they see its weakening as a positive step for Lebanon’s future,” he added.

He said that the war had led to massive displacement of Lebanese civilians. “There are about half a million displaced, mostly Shiites, and they’re struggling to find housing. Hezbollah is using schools and civilian institutions to house them, but it’s too little, too late,” he said. “If Israel can escalate the friction between Hezbollah and the Lebanese people, it could further weaken the group.”

With the potential for wider-scale war still looming, Israel appears to have the strategic advantage, Ziv said. “The initiative is in Israel’s hands now. We’ve taken it from Hezbollah. If they continue to respond, we have many levels to go—there are several floors we can still climb. However, we’re not there yet,” he said.

He said that a cease-fire was achievable. “If [Hezbollah head Hassan] Nasrallah realizes the damage to his arsenal, and with American mediation, this could be an opportunity. He’s lost too much already,” he said.Ziv also expressed optimism about the return of displaced residents of northern Israel to their homes. But for that to happen, he said, Israel’s strategy regarding UN Resolution 1701 will have to change.

UN Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 after 34 days of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Under that agreement, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to cease hostilities, and a UN force was tasked with ensuring that no armed groups other than itself and the Lebanese army operated south of Lebanon’s Litani River.

Israel will have to be “much more aggressive” in making sure Hezbollah doesn’t return to the blue line, the de facto border between Lebanon and Israel and the Golan Heights, Ziv said.

Rabi urged caution on the subject of a cease-fire.

“Israel shouldn’t rush to a cease-fire without learning the bitter lessons of October 7 and the last 18 years in the north,” he said. “Israel needs to achieve more military success to strengthen its position at the negotiating table. Displaced people from northern Israel would not feel secure unless Israel establishes a security zone in southern Lebanon to prevent future attacks.”

He noted that the current conflict is just part of a larger geopolitical struggle.

“Gaza versus Israel is just the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “This is part of a wider conflict involving Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states that want a different Middle East.”