Military, economic, or political targets: How may Israel respond to Iran's attack? - analysis

Ahead of the possibility of a significant response in Iran following the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile attack last week, the political echelon and the top of the IDF may already be "revving up their engines" - but what Iranian targets might Israel strike?

The political leadership faces several dilemmas regarding the nature of the IDF's response on Iranian soil. Is it more appropriate to attack military targets, economic targets such as Iranian oil, governance structures, or targets associated with the Iranian nuclear project that threatens Israel and the entire world?

In a strike focused on the regime's military targets, the Iranians have a number of important, strategic assets Israel may choose to attack. 

It could, for example, target surface-to-surface missile sites. Some of these are placed above ground, while others are mobile and have changed their locations. Others are in underground sites designed to withstand aerial bombings. 

Additionally, drone launch bases and air defense sites are also on the Israeli air force's radar. 

Iran's air defense capabilities

Iran has surface-to-air missile defense systems, such as the Russian-made S-300, the Chinese-made HQ-9, and even Iranian-made defense systems with ranges of hundreds of kilometers.

Assuming the political echelon decides to hit Iranian economic infrastructure in response to last week’s ballistic missile attack, oil facilities would be key targets. 

In such a scenario, oil wells, production processes, transportation, storage, and seaports through which Iran exports oil to the world would all be at risk. 

On the other hand, attacking infrastructure and production processes risks involving the interests of other countries like China, Russia, and others that may not necessarily support Israel, thus increasing the chances of unwanted entanglement.

Governance targets are also included in Israel's potential response to an Iranian attack. On the table are government institutions, national sites, and symbols that, if damaged, could harm the Ayatollah regime and shake national morale.

The nuclear project is the most significant undertaking for the Ayatollah regime in Tehran, and its military infrastructure has been designed in such a way as to protect the various sites, which have been wisely dispersed throughout Iran—some above ground and some underground. 

Striking Iran's flagship project would eliminate the biggest threat to Israel and deal a severe blow to a regime that has been working on the project for many decades.

Doing the impossible: Is Israel capable of attacking Iran's nuclear project alone?

The IAF has the capability to launch missiles from a distance of hundreds of kilometers, thus reducing the need for refueling and increasing the number of aircraft that can participate in the attack, as well as minimizing the aircraft's exposure to Iranian radars and missiles. 

Additionally, the air force's refueling capabilities for distances of up to 1,800 kilometers enable various fighter jets to fly long distances, enhancing the effectiveness of the first strike on Iran. 

It’s important to note that, in addition to the F-35s ("Adir"), the F-15s and F-16s are capable of dealing with advanced air defense systems, including their destruction.

Furthermore, the air force’s air control capabilities, intelligence gathering, and long-range electronic warfare provide high-level defense, precise attacks, and preparation for extreme scenarios. 

The Air Force has drones, such as the Eitan, which can operate for over 30 consecutive hours and are equipped with weapons and intelligence systems. These assets enable multiple waves of strikes, not just a one-time attack.

However, a wide-scale Israeli attack on Iran carries risks that must be taken into account. It can be assumed that in response to a broad Israel air force attack, the Iranians will not stand by idly and are likely to retaliate with even greater intensity. 

Therefore, the first strike, if broad and not targeted, will need to cripple Iran's strategic capabilities to prevent a broad and automatic response toward Israeli military bases and the Israeli home front. It is noted that, according to foreign reports, Israel has second-strike capabilities with ballistic missiles and a third option through submarines.