Deadly drone threat from Iraq, Yemen is increasing - analysis

Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, and Iraqi-based militias continue to escalate their drone threats against Israel. 

This comes as Israel’s air defenses have intercepted many of the rocket and missile threats over the past year.

The drone threat is changing because Iran and its proxies consider this new type of technology to be something they can leverage. 

One-way attack drones that strike their targets by flying into them are relatively cheap to make, hard to detect, and can fly thousands of miles. 

This makes them a popular choice for Iranian-backed groups, giving them a kind of instant air force, as well as capabilities similar to cruise missiles.

Turning their drones on Israel

“Overnight, terrorist groups launched seven UAVs from several fronts toward Israeli territory,” the IDF said Saturday. 

“IAF fighter jets, helicopters, and aerial defense systems intercepted all of these threats. In October, more than 100 UAVs launched by terrorists toward Israel were intercepted.”

The 100 drones used by Iranian-backed groups in October that were intercepted are just some of more than 1,000 drones that have been used to target Israel over the past year. 

For much of 2024, the threat included the launch of one or two drones a day by Hezbollah, usually targeting military sites in the North. The drone attacks increased in some months, including in the spring. Some of them were effective.

They have become more deadly and effective recently. They struck a Golani training base near Binyamina, killing soldiers in a dining hall. 

In the Golan Heights, an Iraqi militia drone also killed soldiers. A drone hit the prime minister’s home in Caesarea. These are just some examples of the rising threat.

The drones in October were still a minority of the projectiles used by Hezbollah. The group launched some 4,000 rockets at Israel. Nevertheless, Iraqi groups have relied on drones to threaten Israel, as have the Houthis.

These groups have become more inventive as well, trying to get drones to strike Israel from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea or from Iraq toward Eilat. There are many angles to defend from, and Israel now faces this challenge.

Israel is also investing in ways to counter drones. The Defense Ministry held an event in the Negev to check out new technologies from Israeli companies in October. 

In addition, the ministry is seeking to roll out the Iron Beam laser air defense in 2025.

This is good news for Israel. It comes within the wider context of an announcement about the US Marines completing a live-fire drill with the Iron Dome. 

This is promising because it means more of the world, including the US military, is understanding how essential this system is.

The US-Israel partnership for the Iron Dome is important. The US has funded Israeli air defenses for years, and the Arrow and David’s Sling air-defense systems were jointly developed with the US.

Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems developed the Iron Dome in the wake of the 2006 Lebanon War. The system is now getting the credit it deserves with the US Marines. 

This has implications in the drone war because it is one of many tools Israel uses to thwart drone threats.

Nevertheless, the drone threat is escalating. Hezbollah claimed to target the Palmahim area on November 2, Saudi Arabia-based Al Arabiya news channel reported. 

In another incident, a Hezbollah drone targeted an industrial area near Nahariya.

Drones were intercepted over the Red Sea over the weekend, Saudi Arabia-based newspaper Arab News reported. In addition, videos on social media claimed to show Israeli helicopters sent to intercept drones, and other videos showed what were said to be footage of drones flying over northern Israel.

“A short while ago, three UAVs that were launched from the east were intercepted over the Red Sea,” the IDF reported before noon on November 2. “No sirens were sounded as the UAVs were intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory.”

“A short while ago, sirens were sounded following the identification of a number of suspicious aerial targets that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory,” the IDF reported later in the day.

It’s clear that the drone threat will increase. 

Hezbollah has lost some of its rocket arsenal due to the war. As the IDF ground operation achieves results, Hezbollah will also want to use drones launched from more areas in Lebanon. 

It also wants support from Iranian proxies in Iraq and elsewhere to relieve the pressure.

Hezbollah believes its drones can target strategic sites in Israel. The drones are cheap to make and can be made locally, meaning Hezbollah can rely on them, even as it loses its rocket arsenal.

The drones can also be sent to attack via various angles at Israel, such as approaching from the sea. 

They are small and easy to launch and can be assembled prior to launch, meaning they can be moved around easily in civilian trucks.

The goal of Hezbollah is to leverage its abilities in this regard so that it can continue to confront Israel.

It can also do this even as its fighters withdraw from southern Lebanon.