Smokescreens in Nasrallah’s fate, IRGC’s Qaani, Mossad, and Israel’s Iran targets - analysis

The mysterious fate of deceased Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani, of Mossad activities, and of what targets Israel will strike in Iran may all be connected under one thick smoke screen.

Nasrallah may have been killed by the IDF on September 27 because of a breach in security relating to Qaani and his staff.

Since September 29, when Nasrallah’s expected replacement was also killed by Israel, Qaani has disappeared from public view, and the reason why has been riddled with contradictions.

At first, he was rumored to have been killed in the strike, which would have made him a martyr. These rumors now seem to be discredited and may have been issued to cover his being whisked off to a secret location.

Was this done for his own protection, as several other top IRGC officials were killed by the IDF? Or was he hidden away to interrogate him or his staff for the security breaches that led to the string of assassinations?

The most colorful theory is that he died under interrogation, which would be a good cover for him keeping some sense of honor if Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were to decide to have him killed or deposed.

An Iranian official has said publicly that Qaani would soon be receiving a public medal, seemingly to defray the negative rumors. That did not happen yet, so most of the speculation has returned to a much more negative scenario.

Out of business

If Qaani was put “out of business,” he would not be the first top IRGC official to get booted out of office due to being repeatedly embarrassed by the Mossad.

Qaani’s predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020 by the US, with Israeli assistance in certain intelligence aspects.

In June 2022, Iran dismissed the powerful IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb. This seemingly occurred right after the success of the Mossad and Turkish intelligence efforts at saving Israelis in Turkey from the Islamic Republic.

No further details about the dismissal of Taeb, who has had a long reign as the IRGC intelligence chief dating back to 2009, were provided.

During his reign, the IRGC’s intelligence further eclipsed the traditional Iranian Ministry of Intelligence Service, which works for Iran’s president.

Before becoming intelligence chief, Taeb worked at Khamenei’s office.

In 2022, television reports said Taeb had been moved laterally to become an adviser to the IRGC’s commander, Hossein Salami.

In other words, Taeb was spared the public humiliation of rumors of being a traitor, having a traitor among staff members, or being accidentally killed in interrogation.

Qaani may still emerge alive and receive a reward. But, he may be a lame duck.

The simple act of allowing such rumors to swirl for two weeks now will have taken a toll on his reputation and authority.

And, all of this is happening as Israel is gearing up to attack Iran. This likely includes not just the IDF, but also the Mossad, and it may involve Tehran’s nuclear program.

Whatever targets it involves, Khamenei would want his A-team ready to provide adequate security and to fend off any Israeli attack.

It seems apparent that Qaani is no longer on that A-team, and that, as with Taeb, Mossad’s prowess has been significant to bring this about.

Cutting through the haze of smoke and mirrors, it seems that the death of Nasrallah and his replacement at the hands of the IDF and the Mossad led Khamenei to the conclusion that Qaani needed to be “benched” or worse, in order to put up the best possible fight to protect Iran’s nuclear program and its other strategic military and intelligence assets from being hammered – the way Hezbollah was over the last month.