Kurdistan regional elections mark a step forward for Iraq’s stability - analysis

The autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq held elections this week, with around two million people turning out to vote.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which typically garners the most votes, once again emerged with the highest number, garnering 800,000 votes.

This is an important step for the region, and to understand why, it is important to know the region’s history.

The Kurdistan region is in northern Iraq, and it consists of four governorates: Erbil, Duhok, Halabja, and Sulaymaniyah. The capital city, Erbil, also called Hawler in Kurdish, is an important and ancient city.

It has a large population of 900,000 and is shaped like a large wheel, with roads that form rings around the city center and extend into the suburbs. The Kurdish city is diverse, with a large population of Turkmen as well as Arabs and Christians.

The KDP has historically controlled both Erbil and Duhok, while Sulaymaniyah was generally led by a rival party called the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Sulaymaniyah is on the border with Iran, and the PUK usually has closer ties to the Islamic Republic. In contrast, the KDP generally has closer ties to Turkey.

In 2017, in the wake of the ISIS war, the KDP pushed for an independence referendum from Iraq. Around 3.3 million people voted in the referendum, with 92% voting for independence from Iraq.

This was not surprising, considering that Iraq had previously suppressed the Kurds and subjected them to genocide under Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Things are different in modern-day

Today, things are different. The Kurdistan region is wealthy and stable. It has new roads and two functioning airports and was a bulwark against ISIS.

It protects minority groups, and many Yazidis and Christians have fled to and sought protection in the region and have since been elected to the regional parliament.

Many Yazidis live in Sinjar, which is in Nineveh province, and is also where many Iraqi Christians once lived. ISIS committed genocide against Yazidis and also expelled Christians, but now some of those minorities have returned home. The KRG’s stability is crucial to security and opportunities in the region.

Over the years, millions of Arabs from other parts of Iraq have come to the region for tourism and business reasons and to seek shelter from Iraq’s chaotic government.

Some of the Arabs have returned home since the ISIS war, but the presence of Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias often makes life unsteady in parts of Iraq. For instance, Iraqis recently attacked a Saudi media broadcaster because it had critiqued Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah as “terrorist groups.”

Why are the elections so important? 

Elections in the Kurdistan region are important because they provide a beacon of democracy for the area. 

In neighboring Syria, the country remains divided. The area nearest Iraq is mainly run by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

This group is linked to the ruling PYD party in eastern Syria. The Syrian regime controls the rest of Syria, and Turkey illegally occupies a small part of northern Syria. The US-backed region of Syria is the only place of relative freedom in the country. US forces based in Erbil help support the US operation in Syria against ISIS. 

The democracy in the Kurdistan region is not completely unique. The rest of Iraq also has elections. However, in recent years, people in Iraq have suffered not only from the ISIS war but also from Shi’ite militias suppressing protests in 2019. The Kurdistan region’s democracy is the best version of the democracy that exists in the rest of Iraq.

The KDP will continue to control most of the Kurdistan region, doubling the PUK’s 400,000 votes. The New Generation Movement, led by businessman Shaswar Abdulwahid, did well in the election with almost 300,000 votes. This movement also opposed the independence referendum. Two Kurdish Islamic parties, the Kurdistan Islamic Union and Kurdistan Justice Group, received tens of thousands of votes.

A breakaway party from the PUK run by Lahur Talabani did not perform well, and the Gorran movement, which once promised a third way in politics between the PUK and KDP, underperformed as well. It appears that Gorran has been replaced in Kurdish politics by the New Generation Movement. Some people in the region clearly have tired of the old-style politics of two parties that control their own governorates and also have major influence in the armed forces of the region.

Politics in the Kurdistan region is not solely composed of political parties, but it is also a familial and tribal affair, with large Kurdish families that have dominated politics for generations playing a role.

The Barzani family leads the KDP, with Nachirvan Barzani serving as the KRG president and Masrour Barzani as the prime minister. The Talabani family has dominated the PUK for decades; Bafel Talabani is the current party leader.

These three men represent the generation of Kurds born in the late 1960s and early 1970s who took over the mantle of leadership from their parents, who led the struggle against Hussein’s regime. Most of these men spent their young years in privation, moving around due to the war, but their adult lives have known relative security and wealth within a successful KRG that emerged in the 1990s and 2000s.

The importance of the outcome 

Democracy was on full display in the KRG, as the elections were conducted peacefully. Around a thousand people ran for office, and the turnout was around 72%. In general, turnout was lower in Halabja and Sulaymaniyah. This reflects the relative dissatisfaction and division that have affected the PUK in recent years.

Halabja has only a few seats in the KRG’s local legislature and is not as important as the other governorates. However, it is historically significant, as it was the site of one of the genocidal attacks using poison gas during the Saddam era. Halabja has generally been more religious and conservative than other parts of the KRG. 

The 100-seat legislature reserves five seats for minorities. Ano Jawhar Abdoka, KRG minister of transport and communications, who is a Christian, suggested that in the next election, the minority Christian reserved seats be only elected within the Christian community. In an article on Rudaw, he said that this will prevent others from interfering with the community’s choices for its own leaders. According to reports, one Yazidi woman, Wushyan Khudeda, was elected during the elections, winning a seat as part of the KDP’s list.