With significant gains in Gaza, Lebanon, Israel's strength shifts negotiations - analysis

Conducting talks now to secure the hostages' return is a critical move for Israel. While hopes for their success are low, holding these talks will allow Israel to assess its standing with Hamas in the aftermath of Yahya Sinwar's elimination. These discussions could reveal if the other side’s positions have shifted, what the current dynamics are within Hamas leadership, and which pressure points Israel can leverage.

The operation in Jabalya is significant. The IDF is dismantling the new military power center Hamas tried to establish in northern Gaza. Hamas consolidated its remaining fragmented forces from the past year and positioned them in the large refugee camp.

The IDF needs a few more weeks to complete its mission in Jabalya. Incidentally, Southern Command believes that ending the fighting in the North against Hezbollah would free additional forces for Gaza, potentially increasing pressure on Hamas and accelerating negotiations for the hostages' release.

Meanwhile, in the North, the four maneuvering divisions still have work to do. A question surfacing in backchannel talks is whether the Americans might push for a ceasefire agreement, at least on the Lebanon front, ahead of next Tuesday's presidential election. This prospect may be why Northern Command is ramping up field activity and aiming to secure as many tactical achievements as possible.

Despite losses, Israel currently experiencing positive momentum

Despite the high number of casualties in recent days, Israel is currently experiencing positive momentum with tactical gains. Within about two months, Israel has eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, dismantled two-thirds of Hezbollah’s force, killed Yahya Sinwar, and disrupted Hamas’s military rebuilding attempts. Quietly, along the way, Israel has expanded the corridor in Gaza to the North, now stretching 6.5 kilometers wide—about two kilometers more than when Israel first secured it.

Against Iran, Israel has broken the non-engagement barrier. The fact that Israel struck forcefully and even disabled air defense systems could enable it to operate with near-impunity over Iran. This strategy is intended to serve the political echelon.

The IDF has provided substantial leverage to the political echelon, allowing for freer negotiations. Now, Israel, positioned from a place of strength in the region, can make more concessions. The question is where to proceed from here.