Lebanese officials say economic strain could weaken Hezbollah control

Senior officials within the Lebanese Kataeb Party (the Phalanges) and Lebanese Forces believe that weakening Hezbollah’s economic capabilities may destabilize its hold over its base of supporters.

Supporters of this theory argue that such financial pressure could lead to "a new phase of increased political activity within the Shi'ite sphere, drawing larger segments toward an opposing alliance."

These sentiments are surfacing more prominently following Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statement last week, claiming that “Israel has defeated Hezbollah’s power and is now in the process of dismantling its economic and non-military infrastructure.”

Those familiar with the Phalange's stance say its leader, Samy Gemayel, believes that “he is more widely accepted than Samir Geagea and better positioned to appeal to Shi'ites and Sunnis. In contrast, Geagea seems focused solely on promoting himself as the strongest Christian leader who would be the top authority in a time of crisis.”

Opposition has acted rationally

Many believe that the Phalange has “acted rationally and strategically, while the Lebanese Forces lack a capable and wise figure to manage their operations” as they have navigated two scenarios that could have escalated tensions.

The first scenario involved an incident in the Bint Jbeil area, where young men affiliated with Hezbollah’s Social Work Unit and a committee overseeing displaced persons set up a tent at the entrance to a displaced persons training area. This action prompted rumors about armed individuals being present inside the tent.

It turned out that dozens of young people gathered around the tent and stormed it. Once the media clarified that the team was working only to provide assistance, Phalange forces dispersed the gathering.

The second scenario also unfolded in Bint Jbeil when members of the Zouaiter family constructed a building on disputed land. Communications and coordination between the Phalange and Lebanese Forces revealed that the land dispute was between Shi'ite individuals, with no issue involving Christians.

According to reports, concerns persist over potential “physical confrontations” between the Phalange and Lebanese Forces. Councils caution against this conflict while warning of a tense atmosphere that could lead to unplanned responses amid intentional leaks and mobilization efforts.

Additionally, concerns arise that “displaced persons may not leave Christian areas after the crisis ends.” This is partly based on the expectation that “Hezbollah may not be able to reclaim its territories and that Israel might occupy parts of the south.”