What can we learn from a month of IDF fighting in Jabalya? - analysis

The IDF returned to fight Hamas in the northern Gaza neighborhood of Jabalya in October. 

The fight has gone on for several weeks, and it appears that much of the work of dismantling Hamas in the area has been completed.

However, this is the third time the IDF has operated in Jabalya since the beginning of the war. What does this month-long operation tell us about Hamas and the war in Gaza?

Jabalya sits on sprawling, low-lying hills between Gaza City, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya. 

It is home to a historic refugee camp from the 1950s and several hospitals, such as Kamal Adwan and the Indonesian hospital.

Reports on Tuesday indicated that the IDF believes it has eliminated around 900 terrorists in this northern Gaza neighborhood in the most recent round of fighting.

 With such a large number eliminated, it begs the question: did the Hamas members return to the area after previous IDF operations here in December and January or in May 2024?

When the IDF operated there in May, it sent the 98th Division into the neighborhood for three weeks. The division of paratroopers and commandos backed by the 7th Armored found the bodies of seven dead hostages and killed hundreds of terrorists. That was the second battle for Jabalya.

The first battle was in December 2023, when the 162nd Division, the same one that went into Jabalya in October 2024, entered the area. 

At the time, The Jerusalem Post reported that “IDF Division 162 has finished completely dismantling Hamas’s three battalions of terror forces in the Jabalya area of northern Gaza, killing over 1,000 of Hamas’s forces and arresting 500 terrorists.

“Additionally, 3,000 non-combatant individuals associated with Hamas have been arrested. Over 70 of those detained directly participated in the October 7 massacre in southern Israel.”When the IDF first faced off against Hamas in this area, there were thought to be three Hamas battalions in the area, divided into multiple sectors. 

If they were defeated, it begs the question of who the 900 terrorists recently eliminated were. Did they constitute a new, recently recruited Hamas battalion, or were they remnants of the three? Or is there more to the story? What is clear is that the assessments in December 2023 that half of the Hamas battalions in Gaza had been defeated may have been overoptimistic.

When the war began, it was believed Hamas had 24 battalions. Half of them were in northern Gaza, and it was believed they had been defeated in the first months of the war. 

After the IDF’s ground operation there in October and November 2023, the IDF began to shift focus towards Khan Younis and toward Rafah in May.

Regrowing its tentacles

In Rafah, the IDF also eliminated 900 terrorists between early May and mid-July. What this appears to tell us is that Hamas was able to return to Jabalya and build up a force as large as the one in Rafah. It shows how Hamas continues to regrow its tentacles.

If Hamas has done this in Jabalya, then Hamas clearly has command, control, and significant forces in the central camps area of Gaza. 

This includes Nuseirat, El-Bureij, Maghazi, and Deir al-Balah. These areas all have old refugee camps to recruit from, like Jabalya. Most of them were never cleared of terrorists.

This means that there are major questions about whether Hamas has been defeated in Gaza and become a guerrilla group, as opposed to an organized battalion-based fighting force. 

In September, reports said Hamas was largely defeated in Gaza. These reports coincided with shifting IDF forces to the North to fight Hezbollah. The 162nd Division moved from Rafah to fight in Jabalya in October.

The battle in Jabalya has been difficult, with IDF soldiers killed and wounded. 

“Jabalya was considered a Hamas stronghold in the northern part of the Strip, and many of the terrorists returned there after the IDF withdrew its forces earlier in the year. The forces said they found the entrance to the city laced with explosives that caused casualties to the troops but said they were less sophisticated than in other areas,” Ynet noted.

Now it is believed that Hamas has once again been cleared from this key urban area. Many civilians have fled south as they were instructed to. 

Other areas, such as Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya, have apparently also been cleared of terrorists. This leads to questions about the rest of northern Gaza, such as Shati, Rimal, Daraj, and Tuffah, all areas around Gaza City.

Jabalya could be a lesson for future efforts against Hamas. Hamas always seeks to return. It wants to return to Khan Younis and Rafah. 

The battle in Jabalya also shows how difficult it will be to replace Hamas. Who will govern civilian areas when Hamas is removed? 

The civilians are generally asked to flee to areas such as Mawasi in Gaza, where Hamas effectively still has control and steals aid.

Jabalya is both a lesson and a cautionary tale. It shows how difficult it is to get rid of Hamas. 

It shows how the raiding tactic hasn’t replaced Hamas governance, and it shows how Hamas digs in, recruits, and exploits civilians and hospitals, as well as schools for cover.