'Orders to come from Iran': Iraqi militias pose growing risk to Israel - expert

Dr. Ronen Zeidel, an Iraq researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, spoke to Maariv on Sunday about a possible Iranian strike and the role of Iranian proxies across the Arab world.

“The pro-Iranian militias,” Zeidel said, “are not numerous; essentially, only two militias are actively involved. They have created a kind of deep state within Iraq, resistant to interference and ignoring the government, security forces, and any authority they can defy. This plunges Iraq into cycles of violence and the risk of war. They act as they do because they consider their orders to come from Iran.”

“They disregard Iraq’s prime minister, the Iraqi army commander, or the defense minister,” he continued. “For them, only [Iranian Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei and [IRGC Commander] Hossein Salami issue the orders.”

He referred to a report suggesting Iran could conduct a strike on Israel from Iraqi territory, stating, “Initially, the impression was that the strike might originate from Iraq, Iran, or both. Once Iraqi territory was mentioned, the militias there showed readiness—eagerly, as though fulfilling a divine command. Iran, however, likely prefers different approaches, involving both its territory and its proxies.”

“I didn’t understand the report clearly at the time,” Zeidel admitted. “There didn’t seem to be a distinct advantage for Iran to act solely from Iraq. I can think of factors, but none presents a clear benefit. Striking from multiple locations, such as Iraq, Iran, and Yemen—why not?”

Zeidel elaborated, “The Iraqi militias are, in my view, more loyal to Iran than any other regional actors, even more so than the Houthis or what remains of Hezbollah. They have a certain immunity; they act with impunity and claim they are defending Iraq’s sovereignty, pointing to past Israeli strikes using Iraqi airspace as justification.”

Iraqi militias fearful of US

Commenting on Israel’s potential measures, Zeidel remarked, “There are numerous actions Israel could take, but little has been done. Primarily, targeted strikes are an option. These militias, despite their bravado, are quite fearful of direct hits, as shown when the Americans delivered such blows. When pressured, they retreat and resort to excuses.”

He noted, “Currently, we are dealing with two relatively small militias. When they suffer significant losses, they change course. The issue is that Iraqi airspace is effectively under American control, and Israel has not carried out strikes there since 1981 due to a US veto. The Americans should handle these militias—they have the intelligence and the precedent for serious action.”

Zeidel suggested, “Economic incentives could also be effective. These militias are run by leaders who organize surrounding members. Many are deeply involved in black markets, corruption, and various trades, amassing significant wealth. Covert intelligence work could encourage them to choose more lucrative paths, akin to tactics used with drug lords elsewhere. In fact, two Iraqi government ministers are militia commanders, although not those currently involved.”