Israel is at a crossroads as Gaza and Lebanon operations reach limit - analysis

As Israel's multifront war extends into its second year, the Biden Administration has intensified efforts to broker a cease-fire in both Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, aiming for resolution within its remaining months.

These diplomatic efforts follow months of stalemate between Israel and its adversaries, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

Though neither side has shifted its stance, evolving regional circumstances could influence the trajectory of the conflict.

On Thursday, senior White House officials Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel to discuss potential cease-fires in Lebanon and Gaza, including renewed efforts to secure the release of some of the 101 Israeli hostages held by Hamas since the October 7 attack last year.

Simultaneously, tensions between Israel and Iran are running high. Following Israel’s recent retaliatory strike on Iran, Tehran has threatened imminent retaliation. 

As Iran backs groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, these developments could influence the chances for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon.

The arenas are all deeply intertwined. For months, American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators have advocated for a Gaza cease-fire, hoping it might prompt a similar resolution in Lebanon. 

However, with Israeli ground forces now in Lebanon and direct clashes with Iran increasing, this paradigm is being challenged and the path to a regional cease-fire might not pass through Gaza first.

“The connection between the arenas was very strong at first,” Lianne Pollak-David, a strategic adviser and Dvora Forum member who has previously worked in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the National Security Council, told The Media Line. “But Israel’s latest successes in Lebanon now present a historical opportunity to separate between the fronts—something that is directly in line with Israeli interests and against Iranian interests.”

Gaza

The war in Gaza has entered its second year. While Israel has scaled down the presence of its ground troops, it still conducts daily airstrikes and ground incursions against Hamas targets. 

The Israeli military also controls two critical passages for Hamas—one bisecting Gaza and another on the Egyptian border, where a cross-border tunnel network is thought to have bolstered Hamas’ military capabilities.

“As a whole, Israel has fulfilled its military objectives in Gaza, but there are still areas in which it needs to work against terrorists and terrorist infrastructure,” Dr. Dan Schueftan, head of the International Graduate Program in National Security Studies at the University of Haifa, told The Media Line.

“In the long run, there is no solution for Gaza. So, while Israel has exhausted its main military efforts, in order to preserve the accomplishments, it needs to maintain a presence in Gaza for now and when it does withdraw it needs to guarantee the ability to operate every time a threat arises.”

Hamas terrorists killed approximately 1,200 people and abducted around 250 in the October 7 attack, triggering a massive Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip. The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reports that Israel's retaliation has killed over 43,000 Palestinians. 

A temporary cease-fire enabled the release of 105 hostages, but further efforts to free the remaining captives have stalled. 

Israel's recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was viewed as an opportunity to renew these efforts, though they have yet to bear fruit.

“There has never really been an option of releasing all of the hostages, or most of them, without Israel stopping the war,” said Schueftan. “This is a delusion. The real question remains is Israel willing to be defeated in a war that has far-reaching implications to get only a fraction of the hostages.”

At least one-third of the remaining hostages are believed to be dead.

Israel media reported Thursday that Hamas has Hamas had rejected the latest mediator proposal, which involved a brief cease-fire and the release of a small number of hostages.

The primary conflict between Israel and Hamas stems from the Israeli government’s intent to maintain control over certain areas of Gaza and its refusal to end the war against Hamas, while Hamas demands a full Israeli withdrawal and a halt to military actionsThe Israeli military reports that many of Gaza's casualties are Hamas members.

It also claims to have destroyed much of Hamas' military capabilities, including a significant portion of its tunnel network and many of its senior leaders.

“The critical issue for Israel is its ability to preserve, by military force, these achievements,” said Schueftan.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-line government has so far resisted concessions for hostage release and has declined to address who would govern Gaza if Hamas is overthrown—a goal that remains unachieved after over a year of intense fighting.

“What is needed now is a very courageous decision that says Israel is willing to end the war in return for all of the hostages, leaving the removal of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza to the second stage of such an agreement,” said Pollak-David.

Lebanon

Hezbollah joined the war against Israel the day after Hamas launched its surprise offensive, subsequently firing thousands of rockets and drones into Israeli territory. 

This led the Israeli government to evacuate tens of thousands from border communities. 

A month ago, following a series of attacks on Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the Israeli military initiated a ground operation aimed at securing conditions for the return of civilians to their homes.

As US envoys conduct shuttle diplomacy between Beirut and Jerusalem, reports from Israeli and Lebanese officials have been mixed. 

In the past week, some senior Israeli military officials indicated the operation was nearing its end, while others suggested there were still inroads to be made in Lebanon.

With Iranian support, Hezbollah has spent over two decades amassing weapons and investing in what is believed to be a massive and wide-reaching tunnel network.

“The military operation is coming close to conclusion, but for Israel, it is important to negotiate under fire,” said Schueftan. 

“Israel needs to continue to expand its operations in order to create a situation that is unbearable for Lebanon that will bring to a bearable solution for Israel, which is the ability to forcefully enter Lebanon when any future threat presents itself.”

Israel is unlikely to rely on a UN peacekeeping force that has been present since 1978 to enforce future arrangements. 

Past UN resolutions aimed at distancing Hezbollah from Israel’s border remain unimplemented. While Lebanon and Hezbollah seek a complete Israeli withdrawal, Israel demands operational freedom in Lebanon, presenting a wide but potentially bridgeable gap.

“There is a very real possibility for a settlement within the coming days and weeks,” said Pollak-David. “Israel’s war goals here were more limited than those in Gaza and with diligent preparation by the Israeli military, it made swift progress while creating deterrence.”

Iran

Last weekend, Israel launched a strike against Iran, escalating an increasingly violent exchange between the archrivals. 

Iran is reportedly contemplating retaliation, and Israeli officials have vowed a swift and forceful response.

The US administration is working to end the current wave of violence, though its influence remains uncertain.

In the years leading up to the current conflict, Iran invested substantial resources to arm its proxies along Israel’s borders, with Hezbollah as the cornerstone of this strategy—now significantly weakened.

“Lebanon was Iran’s main tool to prevent Israel from hurting Iran directly,” said Schueftan.“Israel’s attack proved that it can and that it can face an Iranian. Israel may have overestimated both the threat from Hezbollah and from Iran.”

Israel and Iran have been locked in a decadeslong shadow war. Israeli leadership has pledged to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear capability, while Iran has vowed to destroy Israel. 

This current phase of direct confrontation could widen, with Israel potentially targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

“Israel currently has Iran exactly where it wants, nervous about its intentions and future plans,” said Pollak-David. “We are likely entering a period of a few years in which the sides will continue to exchange blows. It is a complicated chess game that is independent of developments in Gaza and Lebanon—this is the real war.”

US involvement

With days remaining before a pivotal US election, the Biden Administration appears eager to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, Lebanon, or both. 

Such an agreement could resonate positively with voters critical of the White House’s perceived leniency toward Israel’s actions in Gaza. However, as the clock ticks toward next Tuesday, this seems increasingly unlikely.

“Until the elections, Israel will not be coerced by the US into a settlement that does not align with its interests,” said Schueftan. 

“Afterward, it depends on who will be in the White House. [Donald] Trump also wants to see the end of the war, but with Israel victorious. The current administration has much more in contention with Israel.”Post-election outcomes largely hinge on who enters the Oval Office.

“After the election, we will likely see a continued push because Biden will want to leave a legacy of a settlement—this will mean more pressure and less maneuvering space for Israel,” said Pollak-David. “But if Trump is elected, Netanyahu may feel less obligated to cave into Biden’s demands.”

While the region awaits the US election outcome, developments on the ground could swiftly alter the situation.