Israel's arrest of senior Hezbollah operative could change the game, expert predicts

After Israeli commandos apprehended a senior Hezbollah operative who specialized in maritime activities in the town of Batrun in northern Lebanon, Prof. Amatzia Baram, an expert in Middle Eastern studies, explained the Shayetet 13’s special operation had a significant impact on the terror organization and may even force it to move its bases and adjust its plans.

Baram's comments came in a recent interview with Maariv.

Transferred to Israel and questioned by Unit 504, the detained Hezbollah operative holds the potential to reveal valuable intelligence about Hezbollah's naval capabilities. 

Baram emphasized the sophistication of Hezbollah's naval unit, saying, "They are trained and equipped by the Iranian Navy, known for its high professional standards. The small, fast vessels are designed for rapid raids along Israel's coastline, particularly targeting areas from Nahariya and Acre to even Haifa. Though such attacks have not yet materialized, the threat remains."

He added that the arrest increases pressure on Hezbollah, which now faces embarrassment and a strategic dilemma. 

Will Hezbollah alter its plans?

"They must decide whether to alter their operational plans and relocate bases or gamble that the detainee won't divulge critical information," Baram noted.

The operation raises many questions about Hezbollah's naval strength, which has been somewhat of an enigma until now. 

"We know they've received training from Iran, whose navy excels in small-scale assaults and fast boats," Baram stated. "The question remains where Hezbollah stores its equipment and what its future plans entail."

Baram argued that capturing the senior officer was a blow to both Hezbollah and Iran, amplifying the mounting pressure. 

"This arrest challenges Hezbollah's leadership, prompting a potential reassessment of their strategy. They may opt to shift base locations and develop contingency plans," he suggests.

According to Baram, military actions should be coupled with efforts to influence public opinion in Lebanon. 

"To secure a ceasefire on favorable terms, Israel must ensure the Lebanese Shi'ite population pressures their leaders to end hostilities," he observed. "A psychological approach is necessary—deploying suitable messages to make civilians recognize that continuing the conflict is intolerable. Convincing this public that life under Hezbollah's rule is untenable could spark internal pressure."

Baram highlighted psychological measures as a critical strategic component. 

"Conveying messages that underline the gravity of the situation, such as evacuation instructions for high-risk areas, can erode the population's sense of security and increase pressure on Hezbollah's leadership."

Baram concluded by asserting that Israel should leverage its operational successes to gain an advantage before entering any diplomatic resolution. 

"The challenge lies in influencing not just the battlefield but also public opinion and leadership in Lebanon. Weakening public support for Hezbollah and diminishing their ability to sway civilians could lead to a ceasefire on terms favorable to Israel."