Iranian militias in Iraq could take center stage against Israel - analysis

NOVEMBER 4, 2024 21:35

Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party's flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in Baghdad (photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS) — Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party's flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in Baghdad

(photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

Other groups, such as Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, are closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and have carried out attacks on US troops in Iraq and Jordan.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may be at the center of Iran’s plots against Israel. The militias have threatened Israel for years and, over the last year, have increasingly used drones to do so. Now, as Iran plots larger attacks, the Iraqi militias, who are eager to get more involved in the war, could be operationalized for other, more dangerous missions.

Axios reported on Thursday that “Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election.”

The militias currently operate under what they call the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” an umbrella group of several pro-Iran militias that have threatened Israel for years. For instance, the leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Qais Khazali, visited Lebanon several years ago, threatened Israel from the border, and wanted to join any future Hezbollah war on Israel.

Terror groups working in conjunction

Other groups, such as Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, are closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and have carried out attacks on US troops in Iraq and Jordan.

These militias have reportedly received Iranian ballistic missiles as far back as 2018. At the time, they were gearing up for attacks on Israel after the power vacuum left by the defeat of ISIS in Mosul in 2017.

This also meant that the border crossing between Iraq and Syria at Al Bukamal was opened. The militias set up camp in Syria, while Kataib Hezbollah held headquarters in Al Bukamal, which was bombed in 2018, for which Kataib Hezbollah blamed Israel.

The Iranians then shifted operations from Al Bukamal itself to a base nearby called Imam Ali, the center of smuggling and trafficking by the militias, as weapons flowed into Syria and to Hezbollah via the middle Euphrates River valley.

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The militias carved out influence from Al Bukamal to Deir Ez-Zor and from there to a T-4 base near Palmyra. In 2018, the Iranians tried to move a 3rd Khordad air defense system to a T-4 base, which was later reportedly destroyed in an airstrike on the tarmac.

These tensions are now largely forgotten because they were obscured by the “war between the wars” campaign in Syria, in which Israel tried to prevent Iranian entrenchment.

In 2021, the militias in Iraq tried to target Israel with a drone, a move that marked a different kind of escalation involving kamikaze drones, which also hold origins in Iraq. In recent months, drone attacks from Iraq have become more serious, killing two soldiers in the Golan Heights last month.

While the frequency of drone attacks is on the rise, this is not the only cause for concern. Reports say that the Iraqi militias may have sought to aid Hezbollah in Lebanon by sending fighters, which would be interesting but also raise questions about Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Hezbollah may not want Iraqi militias wandering around Lebanon, causing a scandal and making Hezbollah look like it is weak and needs help. On the other hand, Iraq has been slamming Israel for allegedly using its airspace in its strikes on Iran and has called on the UN to condemn Israel.

However, while Iraq also may not want to get involved in a conflict between Israel and Iran, it can’t control the militias. They are under not only the umbrella of the “resistance” but also the Popular Mobilization Units, which rose in 2014 to fight ISIS and are part of the government’s paramilitary forces.

This means that the militias have legs in several camps: the Iraqi state, Iran’s IRGC apparatus in the region, and the “resistance” attacking Israel with drones.

A report from Al-Hadath this week suggested that Iraq’s Ayatollah Sistani does not want Iraq involved in the wider regional conflict, rejecting foreign interference in Iraq. Sistani’s fatwa (Islamic legal ruling) in 2014 helped send tens of thousands of young Iraqi men to join the PMU, but he sees the PMU brigades as mostly a local necessity, and he may be reticent of Iran’s larger plans.