Could both Israel and Hezbollah 'win'? Possibly, because their goals differ - analysis

Hezbollah is laying the groundwork to claim victory in the fight with Israel.

Israel launched Operation Northern Arrows against Hezbollah on September 23. The operation has now gone on for six weeks. Israel has carried out numerous airstrikes in Beirut, Tyre, and Baalbek. On the border, the IDF has carried out limited operations in villages up to a kilometer or two from the border.

While reports in Israel assess that Hezbollah may have lost 80% of its rocket arsenal and also lost 2,000 fighters, Hezbollah is putting on a brave face claiming Israel has not achieved its goals.

This is an important difference between the measure of victory. Israel wants to return residents to northern Israel. Hezbollah assumes that as long as it is not forced to abide by UN Resolution 1701 or disarm or move north of the Litani, then it has won.

Could both Israel and Hezbollah “win?” Possibly, because their goals are different.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency has an article from Sunday arguing that Hezbollah continues to launch rockets at Israel from southern Lebanon. Therefore, Hezbollah is winning, in this Iran-Hezbollah narrative.

The main “axis of clashes,” the article says, takes place along a line of villages such as Meiss el-Jabal, Aitaron, Kfar Kela, and Khaim.

“The Zionists, who failed to achieve any of their goals after long weeks of trying to infiltrate Lebanon by land in the border areas of this country with occupied Palestine, now claim to have completed their operations in southern Lebanon, and are talking about an imminent retreat,” the report claims.

The report references comments by a Jordanian expert on military issues in the region, Maj.-Gen. Faez al-Dawiri in analysis about how Israel could soon announce an end to operations in Lebanon.

“It [Israel’s operation] has been made to force Hezbollah to retreat to the other side of the Litani River or to create a buffer zone on the borders,” the report claims. “Israel has not been able to achieve its war goals in Lebanon.”

The report says that Hezbollah is still present in areas in southern Lebanon. “Like the Gaza Strip, which has been completely destroyed, but the resistance there is still present in all areas and fighting with the Zionists.”

The report goes on to note that the Jordanian military expert pointed out “over the past three weeks, we have witnessed a decrease in the intensity of field conflicts on the borders of Lebanon and the retreat of Israeli forces towards the blue line, which seems to be a pause and a tactical retreat, and it was done when the Zionist forces achieved their goals in the border areas of Lebanon. They failed and realized that they needed to reread the field scene.”

The article notes that Hezbollah has been able to launch medium and long-range rockets that continue to threaten Tel Aviv, Haifa, and the lower Galilee.

“Assessments show that the Israeli army will not announce the end of ground operations in Lebanon before reaching a political agreement.”

The report also quotes comments by Elias Hanna, a retired general in the Lebanese army. He recounted the developments in the field in southern Lebanon and said “the Zionist army is trying to remove the Hezbollah fighters, especially the Radwan special forces, from the borders, but it faces a lot of problems in order to achieve this goal.”

The Lebanese general said Israel had sought to destroy a lot of infrastructure of Hezbollah near the border. He said that “at the present time, the 164th, 36th, 91st, 98th and 210th divisions of the Zionist army are on the borders of Lebanon and they made a lot of efforts to advance to the Lebanese areas, but they did not succeed.”

He also noted how Hezbollah continues to strike central and northern Israel with missiles. He noted a recent attempt by Hezbollah to strike an area in the “vicinity of Ben-Gurion Airport.”

Lastly, the Lebanese officer said that Israel had recently sought to enter Bin Jbeil in southern Lebanon “but it has not succeeded so far, and on the other hand, the city of Maroun al-Ras in southern Lebanon is witnessing an important decisive battle between Hezbollah and the army of the occupying regime.”

The overall message is clear. Iran and Hezbollah are preparing to claim victory in Lebanon if Israel says it is ending major operations there.