Hezbollah is still trying to manage contained war with Israel - analysis

Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, spoke on Wednesday and said that Hezbollah would target Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s elimination of Hezbollah spokesperson Mohammed Afif.

Hezbollah already targeted Tel Aviv in the wake of the killing of Afif on November 17. However, the comments by Qassem indicate that Hezbollah is still weighing a response to the Israeli attack in Beirut that eliminated the Hezbollah chief propagandist.

Qassem’s comments about Israel needing to await a “response” to the attack indicate that the new leader of Hezbollah is still seeking to manage the war with Israel. Qassem replaced Hashem Safieddine, who was believed to be the likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was killed in September, and Safieddine was killed in October. Qassem praised Safieddine in his speech on Wednesday.

Hezbollah is trying to show that it is prepared for a long war with Israel and that, despite losses, it is not on the ropes. Reports in Israel have portrayed Hezbollah as suffering major losses, including 80 percent of its rocket arsenal.

Hezbollah has also lost more than 2,250 of its operatives in fighting in southern Lebanon, according to IDF estimates. This is an addition to another 500 killed before Operation Northern Arrows began on September 23. In addition, Hezbollah has lost dozens of men in airstrikes in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

Qassem has vowed that Hezbollah will not leave Beirut and that it will continue to make Israel “pay” for the strikes on those like Afif. “He mentioned that while the Israeli strikes have been severe, Hezbollah possesses a strong and capable cadre. After two months of an all-out Israeli war on Lebanon, the Resistance has demonstrated remarkable resilience, he added,” Iran’s state media IRNA noted.

He said Hezbollah would never be defeated and was prepared for a long battle. He is also prepared for a potential ceasefire. "We have negotiated on two conditions: a complete and comprehensive cessation of aggression and the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty,” he said.

Not backing down

Hezbollah vows to continue the fight. "We will remain on the battlefield and fight, regardless of how high the costs may rise; of course, the cost to the enemy will also be significant. When the enemy fails to achieve its goals, it means we have won."

What is the point of these statements? First, Qassem is portraying Hezbollah as continuing to manage the war. He wants to show that it is not on the ropes and that it can choose how and when to respond. It doesn’t face an urgent crisis. On the one hand, this could be propaganda. On the other hand, it’s important to consider that throughout the conflict, Hezbollah has sought to create an “equation” in its war. 

This means that every time Israel strikes a certain place, Hezbollah has weighed how to respond in kind. Before September 23, Hezbollah usually targeted areas close to the border. It only extended its rocket fire when Israel carried out airstrikes deeper inside Lebanon.

After September 23, one might think that Hezbollah would take the gloves off. The estimate of Hezbollah’s abilities prior to September 23 was that it would fire thousands of rockets a day at Israel. This threat has never materialized.

One could conclude that Hezbollah never had this capability to begin with. It had 150,000 rockets but didn’t have the launchers capable of launching thousands a day. One could also conclude that the losses it suffered prevented it from this high rate of fire. A third reading could be that Hezbollah sought to husband its resources and not go all-in with attacks. Hezbollah may have never shifted to a total war footing.

One would think that suffering thousands of losses would force Hezbollah’s hand. However, the group closely coordinates with Iran. Iran is under the impression that a long, slow war against Israel is preferable to a short conflict. Iran wants the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Hamas in Gaza, and groups in the West Bank to fight Israel until Israel is exhausted slowly.

Towards this end, Hezbollah has likely been told that it should continue attacks and continue fighting but be ready to slowly withdraw from villages close to the Israeli border and prepare ambushes.

Hezbollah is still firing rockets from as close as six miles or ten kilometers to the Israeli border, meaning it continues to control the third line of villages near the border. Hezbollah continues to fire between 50-120 rockets a day at Israel. This shows Hezbollah wants to keep up a regular amount of fire every day, not too much and not too little. Qassem’s speech was about maintaining this managed conflict against Israel.