Airstrike signals new strategy against Hezbollah - analysis

A major airstrike in central Beirut at four in the morning is raising eyebrows.

Locals described the attack as hitting the Basta area of central Beirut. A large building was destroyed. People initially suspected a high death toll due to the presence of people sheltering in the area who had fled other parts of Lebanon. However, initial reports say four were killed and two dozen injured. More updates will come out as the rubble is cleared.

The importance of the major airstrike in central Beirut over the weekend is that there was no call for evacuation. It is also part of a growing pattern of strikes on areas outside the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh.

It reportedly marked the fourth Israeli airstrike over this past week targeting a central area of Beirut, while previously the bulk of Israel’s attacks have targeted the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs.

It’s possible that Hezbollah leaders are now fleeing Dahiyeh and other Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was eliminated a few days ago, also outside the Hezbollah stronghold.

Hezbollah exploits civilian areas

Hezbollah may feel it must hide out in other areas of Beirut. This aids Hezbollah, because any airstrikes also harm communities that are not loyal to it, such as Christians or Sunnis or others. Hezbollah has always sought to exploit civilian areas of Lebanon; however, it has had difficulties penetrating or making inroads outside of Shi’ite areas.

Hezbollah is now being pressured in Beirut and also in southern Lebanon. The IDF continues to advance against the group in the south. Reports in local media and online say that the IDF is pressuring Hezbollah along the coast near Naqoura and also near El-Khiam and Marjayoun.

These are key areas for the group. Hezbollah continues to fight and fire rockets, which shows it still has quantities of weapons. The group, however, may lack some command and control as many of its leaders and commanders have been killed.

The strikes in Beirut are important. Hezbollah is seeking to find a way to survive for a long war and has said as much in recent statements. It wants to survive this round and keep part of itself intact.

To do this, it will have to improvise, and it will need better operational security. The recent strike in Beirut and other operations are clearly having an effect on Hezbollah.

It remains to be seen what effect this has on ceasefire talks and other activities of the Iranian-backed proxy groups that have been attacking Israel.