Pragmatism and Principle: The future of Saudi-Israeli relations - analysis

The relationship between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Israel has long been shaped by a delicate interplay of ideology, geopolitics, and pragmatism. While the two nations have never engaged in direct conflict (around 1,000 Saudis fought in the 1948 War of Independence under Egyptian command), their historical relationship has been marked by mutual distrust, stemming from Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab world’s opposition to Israel and the enduring Palestinian question.

Yet, as the region transforms, so too does the calculus guiding their interaction, raising the prospect of an unprecedented normalization that could reshape the Middle East.

For decades, Saudi Arabia championed the Arab League’s rejectionist stance toward Israel, aligning with the broader sentiment of Arab unity against Zionism. This culminated in initiatives like the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which Saudi Arabia authored, proposing normalization with Israel contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state along 1967 borders.

Despite this official posture, quiet cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel has existed for years, particularly as both nations share a common adversary in Iran. Intelligence-sharing and tacit coordination have grown, primarily driven by shared concerns over Tehran’s regional ambitions and its nuclear program. These covert ties have laid the groundwork for what might become a broader relationship. During April’s missile bombardment of Israel, Saudi Arabia provided the US and Israel with necessary intelligence, and Saudi sources claim that the Kingdom intercepted "any suspicious entity" violating its airspace.

The 2020 Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States, saw Israel normalize relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia, however, refrained from joining, reflecting its unique position as a guardian of Islam’s two holiest sites and a nation sensitive to public opinion and the Palestinian issue. While Riyadh allowed overflights of Israeli aircraft and engaged in backchannel discussions, it stopped short of formal recognition.

MBS, whose meteoric rise to power in the past decade shocked Saudi watchers, has signaled openness to normalization but faces significant constraints. Domestically, the Saudi populace has been conditioned by decades of anti-Israel rhetoric, and the unresolved Palestinian issue remains a touchstone for many Saudis and Muslims worldwide. Regionally, Riyadh must balance the potential backlash from allies who remain opposed to Israel while managing its rivalry with Iran.

What could change?

Three factors may catalyze a thaw in Saudi-Israeli relations:

The Iranian Threat: Both nations view Iran as an existential threat. Israel is at the forefront of opposing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, while Saudi Arabia remains locked in a cold war with Iran, marked by proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. A formal partnership with Israel could enhance Saudi Arabia’s security and deter Iranian aggression.

However, a recent thaw in aggression between the Shia Iran and Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia has seen meetings between top-level diplomats and Saudi Arabia's crown prince condemned what he called the "genocide" committed by Israel against Palestinians when he spoke at a summit of Muslim and Arab leaders earlier this month.

"The Kingdom renews its condemnation and categorical rejection of the genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly Palestinian people," Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) said at an Arab Islamic summit, echoing comments by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud late last month.

He also urged the international community to stop Israel from attacking Iran and to respect Iran's sovereignty.

Economic Modernization: MBS’s Vision 2030 aims to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy away from oil dependency, focusing on technology, tourism, and innovation. Israel’s tech sector, one of the most advanced globally, could provide expertise and investment opportunities that align with Saudi Arabia’s aspirations.

US Mediation: Washington remains a crucial actor in bridging the Saudi-Israeli divide. The Biden administration has expressed interest in brokering a normalization deal, leveraging US security guarantees, arms sales, and economic incentives to win Saudi support. With president-elect Donald Trump coming in for a second term in January, many in Israel will be hoping he can use the successes of the Abraham Accords to encourage a similar deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

While the potential benefits are significant, obstacles remain. Chief among them is the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that normalization is contingent on progress toward a two-state solution. Without a resolution, formal ties could risk alienating segments of the Muslim world and tarnish Saudi Arabia’s reputation as a leader of the Islamic world.

Additionally, domestic opposition within Saudi Arabia could complicate MBS’s ambitions. Although he has consolidated power, forcing normalization without broader public support could sow internal dissent, particularly among conservative factions.

The trajectory of Saudi-Israeli relations is likely to hinge on pragmatic considerations. While immediate normalization may not be forthcoming, incremental steps—such as expanded economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, and joint security initiatives—could lay the foundation for a future agreement. Both nations have demonstrated a capacity to prioritize shared interests over entrenched ideological divides.

Should normalization occur, the implications would be profound. It could further isolate Iran, bolster US influence in the region, and accelerate economic modernization in Saudi Arabia. However, it would also require delicate management of the Palestinian issue and the broader Arab world’s reaction.

Saudi-Israeli relations stand at a crossroads, where pragmatism and principle are on a collision course. As geopolitical realities evolve, the two nations have more to gain from cooperation than hostility. The path to normalization, however, will require not only bold leadership but also a nuanced approach that balances national interests with regional sensitivities, particularly on the Saudi side. The coming years could witness a historic détente, one that redefines alliances and power dynamics in the Middle East.