Mission 2030: Dismantle Khamenei’s regime - opinion

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has a clear mission: destroy Israel by 2040. The supreme leader has shown that Israel’s pursuit of deterrence can only delay his aggression, not stop it. So Israel now finds itself in a seven-front war against Tehran and its terror proxies.

To provide security for Israel, it is not enough to work harder at deterrence. Khamenei’s deadline, the year 2040, demands a bold counter-strategy: dismantle his regime. Israel must redefine its mission as not just surviving Khamenei’s threats but neutralizing their source.

Ending Khamenei’s dictatorship is not a fantasy, but a clear and achievable objective. Despite its aggression, the clerical regime is brittle. The Iranian people loathe Khamenei and his minions because they have driven the economy into the ground but made themselves wealthy with corruption. 

Those who dissent find themselves in prison, subject to rape and torture. Those who protest risk their lives against security forces using live ammunition. But the protests continue, and the people still chant, “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran.”

It is possible the people will overthrow the regime on their own. Yet Khamenei has learned from Syria’s Bashar Assad how to put down a revolution: torture, kill, and gas both the peaceful and the violent opposition. But help from abroad can tip the balance of power against the regime.

Aiding the opposition is not cost-free, but it can eliminate an array of threats that have forced Israel to spend great sums, year after year, on defense. The Islamic Republic of Iran is the most prolific state sponsor of terrorism, with Israel as its principal target. 

It is a destabilizing force across the Middle East, working to derail the Abraham Accords and the desire for peace with Israel. It has encircled the Jewish state with a ring of fire of terrorist armies. It trained, funded, and equipped Hamas to murder Israelis on October 7. And it is approaching the brink of nuclear weapons capability, enabling Khamenei to achieve his genocidal objective.

TOPPLING THE regime is fully consistent with a continuing campaign against the Iranian nuclear program. The Israel Air Force has shown it can destroy Iran’s supposedly formidable strategic air defenses. Israel’s covert operations have demonstrated an ability to eliminate thousands of Hezbollah personnel at once, or just a single Hamas leader in Tehran.

These victories demonstrate an ability to overcome entrenched adversaries with precise intelligence, advanced technologies, and impressive air operations. The IAF already struck one component of the Iranian nuclear program last month and can do much more.

Joint US-Israel operation

A joint US-Israel operation would exponentially increase the chances of success for the campaign against Khamenei’s nuclear program. Working together would combine Israel’s operational precision with American firepower, logistical capabilities, and diplomatic leverage. Preemptive strikes, cyber warfare to disrupt command systems, and covert actions to sabotage nuclear components could form the backbone of this effort.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the Islamic Republic is likely to face the return of crippling sanctions as part of his policy of “maximum pressure.” In his first term, sanctions decimated Tehran’s oil revenues, drained its foreign exchange reserves, triggered painful inflation, collapsed Iran’s currency, and constrained its ability to fund its terror network.

THE PRESIDENT’S critics warned that outside pressure would force Iran’s proud and patriotic people to stand behind the regime. The critics were wrong. The Islamic Republic is the alien entity in Iran and the people know it is the root cause of their misery. Thus, the return of maximum pressure will help to set the conditions for another uprising.

Accordingly, Israel must work with allies, especially the United States, to reimpose and expand sanctions, targeting not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s lifeline for exporting terrorism and oppression.

Diplomatically, Israel can increase pressure on Tehran by building on the Abraham Accords, in particular by finalizing a peace deal with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine has antagonized European governments who may now be willing to exert additional diplomatic pressure.

Israel’s intelligence and covert operations are another critical pillar of this strategy, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, nuclear weapons scientists, IRGC leadership, cyber capabilities, and financial networks. These operations should escalate and focus on the regime’s critical nodes of power.

Finally, Israel must amplify its support for the Iranian people. By empowering dissidents with communications platforms, labor strike funds, and actionable intelligence against the regime, Israel can increase the odds that the Iranian people succeed when they seek to throw off their yoke of oppression. If the people choose to resist regime violence with force of their own, then they deserve weapons, too.

If Khamenei’s mission is to annihilate Israel by 2040, then Israel’s mission must be to dismantle his regime. All elements of Israeli power, with support from the incoming US administration, must be mobilized. Survival is not enough: Victory is the only option. That means ensuring Khamenei’s regime becomes a relic of history long before its destructive timeline reaches fruition.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as acting head of the National Security Council. Mark Dubowitz is FDD’s chief executive and an expert on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions. In 2019, he was sanctioned by Iran.