Damage control: Four phases of Hezbollah’s recovery post-ceasefire - analysis

After over a year of relentlessly attacking Israel and almost two full months of IDF ground operations in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure embedded within civilian residential areas, the Iran-backed Lebanese terror organization is unlikely to challenge Israel again in the near future.

Instead, Hezbollah will most probably focus on damage control and rebuilding its capabilities in Lebanon, according to Israeli security assessments.

Phase one: Damage assessment

Hezbollah’s immediate challenge is managing the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes, including providing shelter for displaced civilians ahead of winter and caring for the wounded, some of whom may receive treatment abroad.

Hezbollah operatives, who were previously in hiding for fear of assassination, are now tasked with these efforts.

Phase two: Financial recovery

Rebuilding Hezbollah’s financial system, severely damaged by recent Israeli attacks, will be the next priority.

The IDF’s strikes on Beirut’s Dahiya district, a known Hezbollah stronghold, destroyed buildings, sparked fires, and scattered the terror organization’s cash from its vaults onto the streets.

Hezbollah will have to mitigate the damage done so far by the IDF and begin reconstructing its financial resources before it can launch another attack against Israel.

Phase three: Retaliating against Lebanese civilians

Security officials predict that Hezbollah will quickly begin punishing Lebanese citizens who refused to shelter southern refugees during the war or mocked Hezbollah’s capabilities, particularly after Israeli airstrikes devastated Beirut’s southern suburb, Dahiya.

It is believed that the Iran-backed terrorist organization’s remaining armed members would target civilians who had openly opposed the group, even if only verbally.

Phase four: Rebuilding their military strength

Hezbollah will aim to rebuild its military forces based on lessons from the war. However, this will be a significant challenge as Israel intends to intensify enforcement along the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Beirut corridor in coordination with the US, the Lebanese Army, France, and UNIFIL following the newly signed peace agreement.

Despite setbacks, Iran remains committed to using Hezbollah as a forward base near Israel’s border. This determination has intensified amid growing calls in Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear program.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against hosting Hezbollah and Iranian infrastructure, accusing him of “playing with fire” by allowing weapons smuggling into Lebanon.