Assad's nightmare becomes reality: How instability led to rebellion - analysis

This week, Syrian rebels launched an unexpected attack, capturing significant portions of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city after Damascus. This dramatic development raises serious questions: How did this happen? Why now? What does it mean for Israel and the broader region?

The timing of the events in northwestern Syria is no coincidence, occurring shortly after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. For the Syrian regime, the nightmare of instability is becoming a reality. Rebels penetrated deep into Aleppo, revealing severe vulnerabilities. The Syrian army was caught off guard, Russian air support arrived too late, and Shi’ite militias vanished from the scene.

This collapse stems from several factors.

1. Reduced Hezbollah presence

Following the recent conflict with Israel, Hezbollah redeployed forces to Lebanon, leaving a gap in Syria. For over a decade, these Shi’ite militias, backed by Iran, were essential to propping up President Bashar Assad’s regime, especially after large-scale desertions from the Syrian army during the civil war.

2. Diminished Russian involvement

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has deprioritized its operations in Syria, scaling back support from its Tartus naval base and Latakia airbase. The lack of presence has strengthened opposition groups in northern Syria.

3. A weakened Syrian army

Misjudging the situation, Assad’s government implemented reforms transitioning to a volunteer-based military while abolishing mandatory service. Low salaries and morale compounded the issue, leading to a critical manpower shortage.

Misjudging the Idlib threat

A faulty assumption by the regime that Idlib province, the last opposition stronghold, no longer posed a significant threat has backfired.

Idlib has been controlled by a coalition of mainly Salafist-Jihadist groups since the civil war. While Assad’s forces engaged in sporadic bombardments, they underestimated the province’s potential to regroup and strike back.

Turkey’s role behind the scenes

Bordering Idlib, Turkey plays a crucial role in sustaining the opposition by providing funding, weapons, and logistical support. The recent attack appears well-coordinated, violating the Astana 2020 agreements between Turkey and Russia.

Turkish-made arms and financial backing from Qatar reportedly played a role in this campaign.

Implications for minorities and regional stability

The identity of the rebels—led by Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra)—is concerning. They promote Salafi-Jihadi ideology, reminiscent of ISIS.

Minority groups like Alawites (Assad’s sect), Christians, Shias, and Kurds face grave risks. Kurdish forces, for example, have preemptively taken control of neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo to prevent Islamist control.

Southern Syria at risk of fragmentation

The regime's control in southern Syria is weakening. In Sweida province, which is predominantly populated by Druze communities, protests have erupted due to frustration over neglect and an increasingly deteriorating security situation.

Sunni-majority areas near Israel and Jordan, such as Dara'a, may soon join these protests, further diminishing Assad's authority.

Israel’s perspective

For Israel, the weakening of Iran's presence in Syria is beneficial because it disrupts the transfer of arms to Hezbollah.

However, the emergence of Islamist groups presents a new threat. A fragmented Syria, dominated by extremist factions, could result in a resurgence of global jihadism similar to the rise of ISIS.

A new Syrian map?

Syria is effectively divided into three zones: Kurdish autonomy in the northeast (backed by the US), opposition-controlled areas in the northwest (under Turkey’s influence), and Assad-regime territories in the south-central region (supported by Russia).

The coming days will likely see intensified Russian airstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib, further displacing civilians and escalating the humanitarian crisis.

As the second round of Syria’s civil war unfolds, the question remains: Can the regime survive this latest challenge, or will the weakened Iranian axis mark a turning point?