How Syria's rebellion, increased Turkish presence can shift power dynamics - analysis

Syrian opposition forces, led by the newly formed "Shahin" unit specializing in drones and missiles, have reportedly entered Aleppo for the first time since the city was retaken by government forces in 2016 as part of the largest rebel offensive in years.

Over 40 towns, villages, and military positions in Aleppo’s countryside have reportedly fallen into opposition hands as Syrian regime forces, backed by Iranian militias and Russian air power, are reinforcing their positions, with state media confirming “major attacks” on multiple fronts.

The Syrian Civil Defense (White Helmets) reported that regime and Russian bombings in Idlib and rural Aleppo have killed 15 civilians, including children, and injured 36 others. However, war correspondent Khalaf Muhammad stated in an exclusive report to The Media Line that the opposition factions had killed more than 200 Syrian regime personnel, including a senior Iranian officer, whose death Iran announced late Thursday, November 28. 

The correspondent, accompanying opposition factions on the battlefield in rural Aleppo, reported that dozens of regime forces were captured by the factions and transferred to locations under their control. The death of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander in Aleppo, Brigadier General Kiyumars Pourhasshemi, was noted as the highest-ranking military officer killed in this battle. He was killed in a special operation conducted by the factions inside the city of Aleppo.

The rebel coalition, known as the "Military Operations Command," has claimed the capture of the Military Scientific Research Center on Aleppo’s outskirts, a significant regime position. The offensive, dubbed "Deterring Aggression," is bolstered by the Shahin unit, whose advanced drones and missiles have shifted the battlefield dynamics. 

In an interview with The Media Line, a field commander affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) explained that the creation of this unit stemmed from the need to develop specialized weapons capable of shifting the balance of power on the battlefield. In response to this need, HTS launched a strategic project by establishing the "Shahin" unit, specializing in the production, manufacturing, and development of advanced drones and weapons. 

The spokesperson (who preferred to remain anonymous for security reasons) noted that the unit was established with a substantial budget, reflecting the strategic importance HTS places on this project. The unit is led by an engineer officer and reports directly to HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who personally oversees all its operations to ensure goals are met and confidentiality is maintained.

Additionally, Brigadier General Mustafa al-Sheikh, a former officer in the Syrian regime’s forces, stated in an exclusive interview with The Media Line that the "Shahin" unit marks a pivotal advancement in local manufacturing. The successful production of these weapons demonstrates a significant improvement in the fighters' technical capabilities.

Reshaping of control and influence in Syria

The advance of Syrian opposition factions and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham represents a significant reshaping of control and influence in Syria, both locally among opposition groups and the Syrian regime and internationally, impacting actors like Turkey and Russia. The opposition's progress implies an increased Turkish presence in Syria, given its support for these factions, while reducing Russian and Iranian influence. 

However, millions of civilians in Aleppo fear the entry of armed factions, which could trigger open clashes and put civilians at risk. The opposition’s control over large areas offers hope for hundreds of thousands of displaced individuals in Idlib, who have been living under harsh conditions in displacement camps for over five years, to return to their homes.

The swift fall of villages and towns in Idlib and Aleppo's countryside from government control suggests that the opposition now possesses weapons capable of holding their newly captured positions, especially in the absence of Russian air support.

Russia has limited its involvement to diplomatic statements, with the Kremlin expressing concern about armed groups nearing Aleppo and urging the Syrian regime to expand its control. However, there has been no indication of direct Russian intervention in the ongoing conflict.

As the rebels advance, speculation swirls around Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s unannounced visit to Moscow. Syrian businessman Firas Tlass told The Media Line that, according to his information, Assad's trip to Moscow is unrelated to the recent developments in northern Syria.

Instead, he visited to see his wife, who is receiving treatment in Russia. This was corroborated by Syrian journalist Samir Matini, who noted that Asma al-Assad, the Syrian president's wife, is in unstable health due to cancer.