Turkey-backed militias target Kurds amid Syrian regime’s collapse – analysis

Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria have been unleashed by Ankara to attack Kurds in northern Syria amid the increased fighting in the country.

Over the weekend, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an independent opposition group that controls Idlib province in Syria, launched an offensive against the Syrian regime, which fled Aleppo, leading to major HTS gains on Friday and Saturday.

However, northern Syria is also a divided landscape – as the Syrian regime forces fled Aleppo, they left a vacuum of control. As a result of the 13 years of civil war, there are other factions in northern Syria besides HTS and the regime; one of them is the Syrian National Army – SNA – a former Syrian rebel group that is now backed by Turkey.

These groups operate like armed militias and many of them are accused of various human rights abuses. Turkey uses them primarily to control areas that it has invaded in northern Syria, such as Afrin, Sere Kaniyeh, and areas near Kilis and Manbij. In the past, the SNA was used by Turkey to attack Kurds. For instance, in 2018, Turkey invaded Afrin and the SNA ethnically cleansed more than 150,000 Kurds.

The Kurds who fled Afrin moved to IDP camps near Tal Rifaat. There are other Kurdish towns and areas in and around Aleppo. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group that is backed by the US to fight ISIS and is made up of many Kurdish fighters, came to control areas near Tal Rifaat and the Sheikh Masoud neighborhood in Afrin over the last several years.

In essence, this area was subject to a kind of ceasefire and there wasn’t much movement on the frontlines between the Syrian regime, the Turkish-controlled area, and the area controlled by HTS. However, when the regime fled Aleppo on Thursday and Friday, the whole area where the SDF was in control suddenly became exposed and surrounded. HTS moved into Aleppo south of the SDF positions.

Militias attack Kurds

HTS has promised Kurds that they will be left alone and they are welcome to stay in areas the HTS controls. However, HTS has asked the SDF to leave. Turkey, watching the HTS advance against the Syrian regime, decided to take advantage and use the SNA to attack Kurds in Tal Rifaat.

On Sunday, videos showed SNA militias attacking Kurds, invading a hospital, and also abusing Kurdish women. These videos look like the Hamas videos of October 7 because the militias backed by Ankara have similarities to Hamas and other extremist groups. They spend most of their time attacking civilians and looting. The US has accused some of these groups of numerous abuses, including abducting women and killing people.

UNFORTUNATELY, ANKARA has cynically taken advantage of the HTS’s success against the regime to attack Kurds. Instead of using the SNA to fight the Syrian regime, the main goal of Turkey is to go after the SDF. This is because Ankara claims the SDF is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Ankara accuses of terrorism. However, there is no evidence the SDF has ever been involved in terrorist attacks on Turkey. The real goal of Ankara is to remove Kurds from areas near the border and force them to flee.

SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi said on Monday that people were being evacuated by the SDF from the countryside near Aleppo. These included people who had fled Afrin in 2018, and are now displaced again. According to the media eastern Syria is close to the SDF, and the Kurds in this area have come under siege, including in five IDP camps and the Shahba region.

The current attacks by the SNA now may affect tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people. It is not year clear how many because the Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo, such as Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh, may end up remaining if HTS is able to help broker a deal with them or even protect them from Ankara’s attacks. HTS is likely aware that Ankara is seeking to undermine its anti-Assad operations by creating a second conflict north of Aleppo that undermines the Syrian rebellion by creating ethnic divisions between Arabs and Kurds.

Meanwhile, in areas near Hama, HTS continued to make some gains, which could lead to clashes with the Syrian regime, which is drawing up reinforcements.

Damascus is backed by Iran and Russia, so Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may seek to move from Iraq to the frontline to help the Syrian regime. Iran’s foreign minister flew to Damascus on Sunday, and then on to Ankara to discuss the situation.

Meanwhile, Western countries have called for de-escalation, but this will not help the Kurds, who are now fleeing and being displaced again. The SDF is the main US partner fighting ISIS in Syria. However, the support for the SDF is primarily via the Pentagon while US diplomats tend to ignore the SDF or keep it at arm’s length. In the past, HTS has sought outreach to the US but the fact that HTS previously had links to al-Qaeda has made that difficult.

During the previous Trump administration, the White House sought to withdraw US forces from Syria and Ankara took advantage of this to attack the SDF. Now, fragile peace continues in parts of eastern Syria where the SDF is present. However, Ankara might attack other areas where the SDF is present, such as Manbij or Kobani. The collapse of the Syrian regime forces has led to many possibilities.