Will Iranian-backed militias in Iraq march to Syria? Orders awaited - analysis

One of the most important Iranian-backed militias in Iraq is awaiting orders to deploy in Syria to help the Syrian regime fight rebel groups. This has potential implications for Israel because the Iranian-backed militias have been attacking Israel with drones over the past year.

These groups have operated in Syria in the past, and they pose a clear and present danger to Israel.According to Iranian state media, the Kataib Hezbollah brigade “has said that the group has not yet decided to deploy its fighters to Syria to fight terrorists in the country.”

Kataib Hezbollah is not only one of the most disciplined of the Iranian-backed militias, it is also historically closest to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, was killed in 2020 while riding in the same vehicle as Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force.

Muhandis worked closely with Soleimani to coordinate operations in Iraq. In addition, Kataib Hezbollah maintained a headquarters in Al Bukamal, Syria, on the Iraqi border.

The building that Kataib Hezbollah used in Al Bukamal was hit with an airstrike in June 2018. The Iraqi militias blamed the US and Israel for the attack, which convinced the Iranians to move operations to a base called Imam Ali, nearby in the desert.

That demonstrates how Kataib Hezbollah is the key to Iran’s involvement in Iraq and Syria and has been a conduit for Iranian influence.

Threatening Israel

Kataib Hezbollah has previously not only threatened Israel and worked closely with Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has also threatened Saudi Arabia with drones. The group is a serious threat.

“We believe the Iraqi government should take the initiative to send regular military forces in coordination with the Syrian government, as these groups pose a threat to Iraq’s national security and the region,” Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Ali al-Asgari told Arab News on Tuesday, Iranian media reported. Asgari is usually described as head of Kataib Hezbollah’s security bureau.

“The head of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces’ media directorate, Muhannad al-Aqabi, also said on Tuesday that the armed groups operating in Syria are pursuing foreign interests that seek to create instability in the region,” Iranian media also reported.

Iran has accused Israel of being behind attacks against the Syrian-regime forces by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni rebel group in Idlib that recently took control of Aleppo.

Iran may want to use Iraqi militias to bolster the Syrian regime. Tehran says it is worried that the current escalation in Syria could spill over to the region.

Moving Iraqi militias into Syria would be Iran’s way of both preventing spillover and adding fuel to the fire. Any significant movement would be a threat to Israel and to US forces in eastern Syria.

Iran is monitoring developments near Deir Ezzor and along the Euphrates River. According to reports, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces recently took control of several villages in this area that had been occupied by the regime. This could also lead to the deployment of Iranian-backed militias in the Deir Ezzor region.