Syrian war reignited as Assad is weakened from conflict with Israel - analysis

Syrian opposition forces, bolstered by Turkish-backed fighters, launched a surprise offensive against Bashar Assad’s forces in northwest Syria on Wednesday, capturing key areas in Aleppo and Idlib. The assault, coming as a fragile cease-fire holds between Israel and Hezbollah, threatens Assad’s regime at a time when it is already weakened by years of conflict and declining support from allies such as Iran and Hezbollah.

The rebel advance, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), has drawn attention to its potential implications for Israel and regional stability. While Israel has not intervened directly, experts suggest the timing of the offensive is linked to Hezbollah’s diminished capacity following its clashes with Israel over the past year.

Assad’s Weakening Grip

Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, described Assad’s military as “under-equipped and poorly organized,” relying heavily on support from Hezbollah and Iran. “Since 2013, Hezbollah has played a critical role in propping up Assad,” he told The Media Line. But Israel’s operations against Hezbollah have significantly undermined that support.

Dr. Carmit Valensi, senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, pointed out that Hezbollah’s redeployment of forces to Lebanon and its losses to Israeli strikes have left Assad vulnerable. “This offensive caught the ‘Axis of Resistance’ at a critical point of weakness,” she told The Media Line. Iran, too, has “struggled to deploy fighters to Syria,” further complicating the situation for Assad. 

Rebel Forces and Their Capabilities

The rebel groups leading the offensive include HTS, a Sunni Islamist faction with roots in al-Qaida, and the SNA, a Turkish-backed coalition of Syrian opposition groups. HTS claims to have severed ties with al-Qaida, though many experts believe it retains connections to the broader jihadist network. The SNA, on the other hand, is a more diverse group supported and coordinated by Turkey to consolidate opposition forces in areas under its influence.

Rotem Mey-Tal, CEO of Asgard Systems, noted that these rebels are equipped with Western-style weapons and tactics, representing a departure from the Soviet-era equipment typically seen in the region. “The rebels … primarily use Turkish-made weaponry, such as the MPT-76 assault rifle manufactured by Turkey’s military industry (MKEK) and 40mm anti-tank launchers, also produced by MKEK. The rebels move in Western-made Humvees, as Turkey is a NATO member and thus adopts Western techno-military doctrines,” Mey-Tal explained to The Media Line. This contrasts with Assad’s forces, which rely on Soviet-era equipment and Iranian-made missile systems.

However, Mey-Tal warned of the potential long-term risks posed by arming the rebels. “The weaponry supplied to the rebels … could be turned against Israel in the future,” he cautioned, citing historical examples where foreign-supplied arms were used against their original providers.

Israel’s Stance on the Conflict

Israel has maintained a cautious approach to the developments in Syria, observing the situation without direct involvement. Avraham Levine, media director at the Alma Research and Education Center, emphasized that Israel’s focus remains on preventing direct threats to its security. “Israel does not have a dog in the race,” Levine said to The Media Line. “We are observing the situation to see what’s next and evaluate where the recent developments can affect us.”

Levine added that Israel’s official stance during Syria’s civil war from 2013 to 2018 was to avoid interference unless directly attacked. “It seems this is the right choice in this case as well,” he noted.

Chemical Weapons Concerns

One area of immediate concern for Israel is the potential for chemical weapons to fall into rebel hands. Hama province, where the rebels are advancing, contains facilities tied to Assad’s chemical weapons program. Spyer warned that these developments require close monitoring. “If it becomes likely that rebels are on the verge of seizing these facilities, Israel may act,” he said.

Levine emphasized the strategic importance of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center (CERS), a network of facilities tied to Iranian-backed weapons development. CERS plays a pivotal role in developing and manufacturing modern weaponry for Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah. He said that while CERS sites have been targeted repeatedly, their activity “hasn’t been fully thwarted.” 

He explained, “Israel has the opportunity to attack and completely and thoroughly destroy all CERS infrastructures,” a critical asset for Iran. The center enables the movement of weapons through a short route in Syria, central to the Shiite axis, instead of a longer corridor from Iran. Alma Center estimates suggest that destroying 18 CERS locations would significantly disrupt Iran’s strategic objectives and its weapon supplies to militias. Levine cautioned, however, that Israel must closely monitor the risk of these facilities falling into rebel hands as fighting intensifies in Syria.

Russia’s Limited Role

Russia, a key ally of Assad, has provided some support to counter the rebel offensive but remains constrained by its ongoing war in Ukraine. “Russia was surprised by the rebels’ offensive and intervened early on, albeit on a relatively limited scale,” Valensi said. She noted that while Russian air support remains crucial, its ability to commit resources is significantly diminished compared to 2015 when it first intervened in Syria.

Spyer echoed this sentiment, highlighting the strategic importance of Russia’s Khmeimim airbase in Latakia. “Russian air support will be critical if the regime launches a counteroffensive.” However, “Russia’s ability to commit resources is constrained by its focus on Ukraine,” he said.

Broader Implications

While the current developments in Syria have not directly impacted Israel, they carry broader regional implications. The weakening of Assad’s regime and the shifting dynamics among rebel forces could create new challenges for Israel and its allies. At the same time, the potential for strategic weapons to fall into the wrong hands underscores the importance of continued vigilance.

Experts agree that Israel must monitor the situation closely, balancing its need to address immediate security concerns with the risks posed by intervening in a complex and evolving conflict.