Iran faces setbacks in Syria as proxies weaken, struggles to support Assad regime - analysis
Iran is clearly trying to shore up support for the Assad regime after the regime suffered setbacks at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an opposition group.
Iran has admitted that the current setbacks to the Syrian regime are a challenge for its regional “axis of resistance,” which consists of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, the Syrian regime, and other groups.
Iran mobilized this axis to attack Israel following the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah began attacks on Israel the next day, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, and militias in Iraq have used drones to threaten Israel.
Now, the “axis” has faced setbacks.“Iran’s top general warned that the recent surge of terrorist activities in Syria is part of an American-Israeli scheme to weaken the Syrian government and its allies in the Axis of Resistance,” Iranian state media IRNA said on Tuesday.This is a major admission of failure by the Iranian regime. Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, made the comments in phone calls this week to his counterparts in Syria, Gen. Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, and Iraq, Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rasool, as well as Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have also been clashing with Syrian regime forces in the Euphrates River Valley, with the spotting of an American A-10 warplane. The US backed the SDF in the war on ISIS, but it’s starting to look like these clashes could weaken the regime’s grip on the Euphrates River Valley.
Iran struggles to support Syrian regime
Iran’s backing of the Syrian regime is at risk, especially because Iran’s other proxies in the region are weak. Hezbollah has agreed to a ceasefire with Israel after being hammered by the IDF in two months of heavy fighting; it may have lost over 3,000 fighters. These are all men who can’t help the Syrian regime now, in stark contrast to 2012, when Hezbollah was instrumental in helping the Syrian regime against rebels.
Now, Iran is blaming Israel and the US for the setbacks to the Syrian regime, going as far as to send its top diplomat to Damascus and Ankara this week to discuss the situation, followed by calls from the Iranian military to Russia and others in the region.The discussions between these officials “centered on the resurgence of terrorism in northwestern Syria, where government forces are battling a lightning offensive by foreign-backed militants who have captured swaths of Aleppo and moved as far south as Hama since Wednesday,” the Iranian reports read.Bagheri “emphasized that the coordinated timing of these attacks with a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon indicates a dangerous scenario orchestrated by Americans and Israelis aimed at undermining Syria and its allies in the Axis of Resistance,” they continued.Iran’s top general clearly understands the dire situation that Tehran is in. Iran does not want to deploy its own troops abroad, preferring that proxies die instead for Iran’s cause. And these proxies are now weakened.Iran may request that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia, deploy troops to Syria, concerned that HTS will receive military support in its offensive against Hama.Iran International reported that senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figure Javad Ghaffari was reported to have arrived in Damascus on Tuesday “hours after Iran’s foreign minister said Iranian forces could be deployed to Syria if requested by Assad,” sourcing Iran’s state-run Al-Alam.The fact that an independent media group is sharply critical of the Iranian regime and the state-run media, which reflects the prism through which the Iranian military sees the situation, dovetailed with one another paints a picture of Iranian desperation in trying to save Assad.Ghaffari has served in Syria before and is currently under US sanctions. “Previously, Ghaffari spent several years in Syria leading forces, including Hezbollah fighters and the Afghan Fatemiyoun militia, in campaigns to reclaim key central and eastern cities Palmyra, Deir Ezzor, and Al-Bukamal from opposition groups,” Iran International reported.It is unclear if the reports about Ghaffari’s current deployment can be confirmed, but the report shows how Iran may be scrambling and grasping to see what support it can send. Assad’s regime doesn’t have many troops or reserves to send into the fight, Iran and Russia will not want to send troops, and the Iraqi militias may not want to be seen to be intervening in a major way.This will require some quick footwork by the IRGC to see if it can save the frontlines that are forming around Hama and push HTS back. Absent that, Iran will need a deal with Turkey to get it to stab HTS in the back in Aleppo.Reuters contributed to this report.
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