What happens now? How the fall of Assad's regime can shake the Middle East - analysis
The IDF and the intelligence community are preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond.
The fall of former president Bashar al-Assad's regime on Sunday appears to mark the end of an era, one in which there was a clear single authority over most of Syria. Now, Israel will need to identify new areas of cooperation with new leaders.
The Syrian rebels consist of a collection of groups and organizations that do not necessarily share the same vision – save for their unity against the Assad regime, their common enemy.Therefore, Israel’s intelligence community will need to monitor developments and, in conjunction with diplomatic efforts, attempt to secure the area near the border – by engaging with those in control to achieve basic agreements on stability.The military and the intelligence community have been preparing for a variety of scenarios along the Syrian border and beyond, ranging from rebel activity near the fence to rebel attempts to seize stockpiles of unconventional weapons held by the Syrian army.
Preparations were assumed to counter attempts by Iran and Hezbollah to obtain strategic weapons, such as P-800 Oniks, ballistic missiles, helicopters, aircraft, and massive arms stockpiles.
Read the latest news and analyses on the Syrian revolution from The Jerusalem Post:
• Liveblog: Rebels seize Damascus, Assad whereabouts unknown
• The bloody, corrupt history of the Assad regime toppled by rebel forces
• Israel and Syria: Eternal enemies and perpetual war
• Moscow claims Assad fled as mystery plane leaves Russian air base in Syria
Iran
Iran, meanwhile, is watching its most valuable asset. There is no doubt that the Islamic regime is reassessing the investment, asking itself whether it is still possible to salvage its assets in Syria and, subsequently, Bashar Assad.Ultimately, the Iranians understand that what remains for them after the severe blows dealt by the IDF to Hezbollah and the collapse of Assad’s regime is the nuclear program.So, they will soon face a significant dilemma: push forward with the nuclear project as a means of protection or pursue an agreement with US President-elect Donald Trump to gain four years of quiet and immunity from an Israeli attack?At this stage, the government would prefer halting Iran’s nuclear project, which is progressing in a concerning manner.
Hezbollah
Hezbollah, reeling from the IDF’s hits, is recalculating its path, trying to salvage weapons stockpiles in southern Lebanon.Its logistical backbone, Syria, collapsed before its eyes, leaving it unable to offer significant support.The question that follows is: Will Hezbollah become Assad’s sponsor in Lebanon, necessarily positioning itself as a target for the rebels?Hezbollah’s ability to fight the IDF would decline significantly; the group would primarily focus on understanding the events unfolding in Syria and their effects.
Jordan
Along the Eastern border, Jordanian King Abdullah II is constantly reading reports in the foreign media, receiving intelligence from his operatives, and understands that at any moment, the rebels could push into Jordan.The collapse of Assad’s regime will prompt Abdullah to keep a close eye on his own country, rife with several internal forces that might exploit the tense regional situation to alter Jordan’s political reality.This is a concern for Israel as well, given that it shares its longest and relatively most stable border with the kingdom. A significant security shift along the Jordanian border could impact the allocation of IDF forces across different sectors.
Saudi Arabia
The collapse of the regime in Syria could be a turning point for the moderate Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia. At this stage, Saudi is not truly in a position to take a stand or influence the dismantling of the axis.The rebels may gain momentum and extend their ambitions beyond Syria, potentially affecting the entire Middle East.
United States
The US military maintains a significant concentration of troops at Al-Tanf, the tri-border area of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq.The last thing the Americans want is to see their soldiers fighting rebels. Even before the fall of Assad’s regime, senior American officials proposed withdrawing due to the risks.However, such a withdrawal would be perceived as a sign of weakness and would further expose Jordan to attacks. At this stage, US policy towards Syria and the region remains unclear, along with the White House’s hesitancy.
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