As Assad falls and Iran weakens, Qatar gains influence across Middle East - analysis

The Iranian-backed axis in the region is suffering repeated blows: Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters during a two-month Israeli campaign that ended on November 27, and the Assad regime in Syria fell on Sunday.

This has potentially severed Iran’s ability to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah, and it leaves Tehran cornered. Even as Iran suffered losses, it appears that Qatar is poised to benefit.

Qatar, remember, hosted Hamas on October 7, 2023, when the terrorist group massacred 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 Israelis and foreign nationals, mostly civilians.

While Jerusalem is shedding no tears at the fresh weakness of the Iranian-backed axis, these celebrations must be tempered by reality: Hamas continues to control central Gaza and refuses to release the 100 hostages it still holds. Hamas continues to be backed by Qatar and also by Turkey.

At the recent Doha Forum, Qatar projected its influence and power, hosting numerous regional state representatives, including the foreign ministers of Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan. Top diplomats from Iran, Turkey, and Russia were also present.

“Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan took part on Saturday in a high-level meeting on Syria involving regional and international stakeholders in Qatar,” Riyadh-based, English-language newspaper Arab News reported.

Doha and Turkey exploit Iran's weakness

As the Syrian regime was falling apart, representatives of key regional states met in Qatar to discuss its future. Meanwhile, Iran, Russia, and other countries that backed Assad have pivoted and are now willing to work with Qatar, being more flexible in general.

While Iran may appear cornered, there are still many wheels in motion in the region. Qatar will benefit from Iran’s weakness because it gives Doha even more influence and sponsorship space – the one Iran lost – over groups such as Hamas or the new emerging rulers in Damascus.

The system works like this: Over the past few years, Iran backed various regional groups, positioning itself in the role of hollowing out the countries these groups are based in, weakening them, and filling that space with militias.In Iraq and Lebanon, the militias are Shi’ite – like the Iranian regime; in Yemen, they also are a local sect.

In Syria, the Assad family is Alawite, a minority group. That means Iran fed off working with non-Sunni groups in the region.The exception to that rule was Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. By sponsoring these groups, Iran gained significant influence over Palestinians, enabling it to escape what was partly a sectarian ghetto.

Qatar is a different story. Doha backed the Muslim Brotherhood for years all across the region, a group rooted in Sunni Islamic politics, meaning that Doha has often found influence in civil conflicts and has been on a different path than Iran.

This was the case in Libya, Syria, and with Hamas. Qatar lost out at times, like when the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt in 2013. It even suffered some isolation when Saudi Arabia led several Arab countries to break ties in 2017.

Qatar and Turkey have formed an iron bond, however, and both have reached out to Iran. Turkey, Iran, and Russia were all part of the Astana process that aimed to end the Syrian civil war, and all three, along with Qatar, support Hamas.

While Israel will gain from Iran’s weakness, it is not a complete victory because Hamas continues to control Gaza, is angling for influence in the West Bank, and is holding 100 hostages. The Iranian threat was only one part of the deadly chessboard in this region, and a new threat will emerge soon.

Israel has always faced new threats. In the 1950s and 1960s, they were led by Arab nationalist regimes. Later, they were replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Turkey, whose leading Justice and Development Party (AKP) has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, is one of the most vicious foes of Israel.

Make no mistake, the end of the Assad regime will not likely solve all of Israel’s challenges. Qatar is angling to make itself more important, and its historic hosting of Hamas presents a challenge to Israel’s security.

On October 7, 2023, more Jews were massacred in one day than at any time since the Holocaust. So, while Iran and its axis continued to be a threat, they could not massacre 1,200 people and kidnap 251. Israel prevented Iran and its allies from such activities.

The key issue right now is preventing Hamas and its backers in Ankara and Doha from exploiting the situation in Syria for their own ends.