‘We don’t know what Syria will look like on January 20,’ security expert tells ‘Post’

Less than 24 hours before Syrian rebels seized Damascus, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, President-elect Donald Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, emphatically writing that the US should have “nothing to do” with Syria.

“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT,” Trump wrote. “LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

Trump’s unfulfilled first administration vow to withdraw all troops from Syria caused massive rifts globally, as well as within his own administration, as Jerusalem Post reporter Seth J. Frantzman detailed in 2019.

Israeli officials were among those alarmed in 2018 when Trump first announced his desire to pull US troops out of Syria after claiming to defeat ISIS, the Post also reported at the time.

Trump’s only statement since Assad fled to Moscow on Sunday focused entirely on Russia’s support of the Syrian ruler and its need to come to a ceasefire with Ukraine.

He made no mention of the future of Syria, its people, or American policy toward the country.

Israel will again be closely watching the Trump administration’s decisions and social media posts regarding its posturing of troops in Syria as security concerns mount over the Jewish state’s northeastern border.

Like much of Trump’s Middle East policy, there’s a base level of unpredictability between what’s speculated now and what will come into fruition given the constant flux in the region.

'We don’t know what Syria will look like on January 20'

“We don’t know what Syria will look like on January 20,” Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told the Post.

“With that caveat, my hope is that [Trump] will keep US forces in Syria, whose purpose is to minimize the growth of ISIS.”

Makovsky pointed out that Trump’s incoming administration is made up of more isolationists than the traditional hawks of his first administration, who were able to convince him to keep US forces in place.

DAVID LESCH, who teaches history at Trinity University in San Antonio and is the author of more than a dozen books on Syria, the Middle East, and the Arab Spring, echoed Makovsky that Israel would want the US to continue its involvement in Syria.

Particularly, Lesch said that the US would probably keep its troops in Syria in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces and to keep ISIS from reorganizing and regrouping in the aftermath of Assad’s exit and the potential vacuum of power.

EJ Kimball, director of policy and strategic operations at the US Israel Education Association, agreed that a lot of things in the region and within Syria will look different in six weeks, saying that Trump “won’t necessarily withdraw troops right away” depending on what the situation looks like when he comes into office.

Makovsky raised additional concerns about ISIS, saying it’s important for US forces to continue supporting the Kurds – who, if abandoned, may not be able to continue controlling thousands of ISIS prisoners. The Kurds also matter to Israelis, he said.

Lesch thinks Netanyahu would want Trump to stay engaged in the Middle East in general and to help make sure Syria “does not devolve into a failed state with serious jihadist elements in control of important parts of the country.”

However, he said that the US and the rest of the world need to see if the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), or the coalition it leads, will “match deeds with words” and if the pragmatism and moderation on display now will last long-term, maintaining order in the country.

Kimball said the US needs to be very clear about what type of Syrian government it would support, including specific positions dealing with Iran and involving relationships with Israel and the Western world.

“Without those changes, and without a non-violent posture toward Israel, the US should consider the Syrian government in a similar vein as the Assad regime, where it does not have formal relations with them,” Kimball said.

But overall, he said that the US still needs to see things play out while supporting Israel’s actions thus far in securing the Golan buffer zone as well as taking out the chemical weapons factories and other research facilities Assad’s regime was using to build weapons.

Netanyahu has said Israel would like to have peaceful relations with Syria, Kimball added, but if that’s not what Syrians want, Jerusalem is prepared for war to defend itself.

ISRAEL DOES have an interest in a stable Syrian government and state, Asher Kaufman, professor of History and Peace Studies at Notre Dame who focuses on Lebanon, Israel, and Syria, said in an email to the Post.

Israel’s interest is also to work on reducing Iran’s influence in Syria without using military force to do so, he said, and to make sure Syrian territory is no longer a bridge for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Ideally, this should be achieved by allowing anti-Iran Syrians to do the work,” Kaufman said. “Israel should make an utmost effort not to harm Syrian civilians in the process.”

As for Trump’s statement on America not being involved in Syria, Kaufman said he isn’t sure what Trump means, as the US is deeply involved with almost 1,000 soldiers stationed in the country.

And if the US “does not get involved,” he said, others will, whether it be China, or Russia and Iran again.

“But Trump may think that having Russia secure its influence and military base in Tartus over the new regime may be a good idea,” the professor said.

Kaufman also asked how HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani would view the Golan Heights in Israel should Syria become stable under him, pointing out that Jolani’s family originated from the area.

“Trump recognized the Israeli ‘annexation’ of the Golan Heights during his first term,” he said. “He would likely not change his views, and certainly in Israel there is no appetite for any discussion about a peace agreement with Syria that would involve a withdrawal from the Golan Heights.”

While not tied to Trump, both Makovsky and Kimball highlighted the fall of Assad as to why they think now is an even more critical time to address Iran’s nuclear facilities and ambitions.

Makovsky said dealing with the nuclear issue is the top priority, “without a question in my mind.”

“Iran is reeling seeing its entire Middle East strategy collapsing in front of its eyes,” Kimball said, noting that Tehran will try to rebuild.

“If the United States was looking at removing Iran’s nuclear program, there is no better time than right now.”