Southern Syria groups overthrew Assad and control areas near the Golan - analysis

Leaders of armed groups from southern Syria who helped overthrow the Assad regime met with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani on Wednesday, according to photos and reports posted online. This is important because the southern groups were a key part of the Syrian revolution and rebellion.

They were forced to agree to terms set by the Assad regime in 2018 under bombardment from Damascus and Russia. They reappeared on December 6, however, and helped march on Damascus.

Jolani is the head of the Sunni rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that spearheaded the overthrow. His real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa. He has been making the rounds in Damascus, visiting mosques and meeting with people to cement his leadership.

Jolani faces many challenges, but he is overcoming the initial hurdles. For instance, Syria has a new prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir. A key factor in Jolani’s success will be how he manages ties to other groups in Syria. He already has helped consolidate control of Deir Ezzor and has managed relations with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), near Aleppo.

In southern Syria, Jolani now appears to be meeting the leaders who have held sway there for years. According to reports, he met with leaders from Dara’a Governorate, including Ahmed al-Audeh and his close associate Ali Al-Sabah al-Muqdad; and Muayad al-Aqra, who is known as Abu Hayyan and is from the town of Hayt, near the southern Golan Heights.

They represent areas often known as Busra al-Sham, which is near the Jordanian border. The wider region in this area is called the Hauran.

Ahmed al-Audeh, whose name is sometimes spelled Oda or Awda, was a key leader of the Syrian rebels in southern Syria until 2018, when the groups were forced to come to terms with Assad’s army. They were “reconciled” and joined a military formation known as the Russian-backed Fifth Corps.

Audeh came to command its 8th Brigade. His role over the next several years was complex, and his reputation suffered due to perceptions he was collaborating with Russia.

Audeh comes from the town of Busra al-Sham and was a commander of a group called Shabab Ahl al-Sunnah in 2015. He worked with and then opposed other groups, such as Al-Muthanna and Jubhat al-Nusrah. Nusrah later became HTS.

Audeh became closely connected to the Operations Center in Jordan, which ostensibly gave him and the southern Syria rebels connections with the US, UK, and other Western and Gulf states.

Now, he is back in the spotlight. It appears his close associate Ali Bash, also known as Ali Al-Sabah Al-Muqdad, also has a key role in determining what happens next. Muqdad is also from Busra al-Sham and has studied economics in Dara’a.

These former 5th Corps reconciled rebels continue to be the main group. They claim to have been the first to have entered Damascus on December 8. They entered in the morning, and they also helped take Assad’s prime minister out of his house to a hotel to help with the transition.

Most of them returned to Dara’a after December 8. Although Audeh has control of his factions, there is another officer named Naseem Abu Ara who held the rank of colonel and defected years ago from the regime army.

Audeh’s group and smaller factions, such as Abu Hayyan, are thought to be the strongest ones in southern Syria, including in areas near the Golan. It is assumed they will have a role in the future government of Syria.

Meanwhile, Maghawir al-Thawra, a US-backed group that was trained in Tanf, near the Jordanian border, also has several hundred fighters. It tried to advance toward Damascus and took some areas in Homs Governorate.

Nevertheless, it does not seem that this group has been able to leverage its operation to get a place in the emerging new Syrian system. It remains to be seen what will develop.

What do Syrian groups think about Israel?

WHAT DO these groups in southern Syria think about Israel? Some factions in this area once received humanitarian aid from Israel. Medical volunteers were also evacuated from Israel to Jordan in 2018.

The issue of Israel and the Golan does not seem to be a priority in Damascus. They are focused on stability and seizing power in other regions in Syria. According to people familiar with the matter, this depends on Israel’s behavior as well.

Many people may resent Israel, but they are angrier at Russia and Iran’s harm to Syria over the last decade. They are seen as having used the Palestinian cause to oppress people in Syria. It will depend on Israel’s next actions, according to an informed source.

Meanwhile, there is the question of what happens in Albukamal, the town on the border of Iraq on the Euphrates River. It has strategic importance on the Iraqi border.

Iranian militias previously had influence in this area. In the past, ISIS and other extremist groups also transited this area. It is believed this could be a flashpoint.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition of militias that opposes ISIS, has withdrawn from Deir Ezzor and Albukamal after having taken these areas on December 7. It is unclear which group will control Albukamal. This is a key region because ISIS has cells in the desert there, and Iran also has some influence.

ISIS is still a threat. It exists in the desert between Deir Ezzor and Homs. If there is no stability in Syria, then ISIS will exploit it, according to people familiar with the matter. HTS is concentrating on stabilizing the situation.

Another key area is Suwaida, a Druze city in southwestern Syria. This mountainous area is important, and it is different from the desert to the east and the areas near Jordan and the Golan.

The Druze have come to oppose the regime over the past several years after feeling oppressed, despite some of them having been conscripted and serving with the regime during the civil war. The question is how HTS will work with this area to provide some kind of agreement and autonomy.

Many things are up in the air. The collapse of the regime happened faster than many observers expected. This also shifted the developments regarding the SDF moving into areas such as Deir Ezzor and Albukamal, as well as the US-backed Maghawir al-Thawra being able to advance.

Because of this, any Western plans about what might come next in southern Syria were shelved. The result was a short bombing campaign by the US-led coalition to strike ISIS cells in the desert and a multi-day bombing campaign by Israel to destroy regime military assets.