Southern Syria's resurgence brings Jordan and Iraq back in key roles - analysis

King Abdullah II of Jordan is concerned about developments in southern Syria. He knows very well the issues involved there, because Jordan hosted many Syrian refugees after the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011.

In addition, Iranian-backed gangs in Syria have been involved in the smuggling of Captagon (fenethylline) and other drugs that threaten Jordan. Southern Syrian rebel groups were also closely connected to Amman and Western backing via Jordan from 2014-18.

The king of Jordan “emphasized on Friday that guaranteeing Syria’s security strengthens the region’s overall stability and urged coordinated international efforts to achieve this goal,” Anadolu Agency, a state-run news agency in Turkey, reported.

Abdullah made the comments during a call with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. They discussed “regional updates, particularly the situation in Syria,” according to a Jordanian Royal Court statement.

Jordan wanted to ensure security and stability in Syria, and it seeks to “reinforce security and stability across the region,” the statement said, adding that it hopes the international community will be involved.

Jordan has close ties with Western militaries, including the US and UK. However, US forces in Jordan have come under attack from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

In January, Kataib Hezbollah killed three Americans at a site called Tower 22 in eastern Jordan. The US also has backed a Syrian rebel group at Tanf in Syria, near the Jordanian border.

Jordan is also close to the Gulf states, some of which had reconciled with the Assad regime. Jordan had also sought better ties with Assad only to watch him collapse.

Rebel groups and their significance to Jordan

The southern Syrian rebel groups are important to Jordan. They rolled into Damascus on December 8. Ahmed Audeh and other southern Syrian rebel commanders are well known to Amman. They had reconciled with the regime in 2018 and have now helped to overthrow Assad.

Their future remains uncertain. In 2018, Jordan helped medical volunteers from southern Jordan flee via Jordan to northern Syria. The volunteers initially went via Israel and then via Jordan, showing the shared concerns Jordan and Israel have in this matter.

Jordan is also laser focused on the Israel-Hamas War and the West Bank. “The first step to de-escalating tensions in the region is an immediate halt to Israel’s war on Gaza,” Abdullah told Mitsotakis. He also discussed the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US and Iraq have discussed Syria as well. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Baghdad on Friday and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani.

“We spent time talking about, understandably, the situation in Syria and the conviction of so many countries in the region and beyond that as Syria transitions from the Assad dictatorship to, hopefully, a democracy, it does so in a way that, of course, protects all of the minorities in Syria, that produces an inclusive, nonsectarian government ,and does not in any way become a platform for terrorism,” Blinken said.

Iraq shares a long border with Syria. Part of the border is held by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Another part of the border was controlled by the Assad regime up until December 8.

When the regime collapsed, the SDF briefly took control of Albukamal on the Syrian side of the border. Now, it appears that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-backed forces will control that part of the border.

HTS is the main group that overthrew Assad. However, US-backed forces known as the Syrian Free Army, who operate from Tanf, may also have a role to play in this area.

There are many factors in flux, and southern Syria is very important in this regard. This area was a transit point for Iranian weapons going to Hezbollah via Albukamal. It was also a transit point for insurgents entering Iraq from 2004 to 2011.

Therefore, the corridor along the middle Euphrates River valley must be stabilized. The SDF, HTS, the US, Iraqis, and Jordanians all have a possible role to play.