Is Syria's Julani part of a rising generation of younger Middle East leaders?

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new leader of Syria who also goes by the name Abu Mohammad al-Julani, represents a possible new era of leadership in the Middle East.

He was born in 1982, making him one of the youngest leaders around, close to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who was born in 1985, and Sheikh Tamim Ibn Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, who was born in 1980.

This new generation is rising, and it stands in stark contrast to some of the leadership figures in the region who are not only aging but represent eras that reflect more of a Cold War setting than the modern era.

Julani could remain in power for years to come, although it is also possible that he won’t. If he does, he could play a transformative role because he is not just young; he represents the victory of a brand of political Islam that had seemed to be fading.

While many countries have turned on groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which was more popular in the 1980s and ’90s – others have seen religious groups hold power for too long and ossify.

For instance, the Turkish government has been run by Recep Tayyip Erdogan for two decades, but his brand of Muslim Brotherhood-style politics is not new but old.

This new Syrian leadership appears to already be worrying the Jordanians. King Abdullah II knew he could also face a popular uprising. During the Arab Spring, many of the countries that saw their regimes fall were Arab nationalist regimes, while the monarchies in the region withstood the tide.

Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, as were Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.Other Arab nationalist regimes suffered similar fates: Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and Yemen’s Ali Saleh was killed in 2017.

When the Arab Spring threatened to topple the monarchy in Bahrain, the Saudis intervened, stemming the tide.Since then, a decade has passed, and a lot has changed. Qatar and Turkey tended to back more Islamic-leaning governments and groups, such as Hamas, while the Saudis and Emiratis pushed back against the Islamists.

Other factors are also at play in the region: The weakening of the Sunni Arab states and Arab nationalism provided Iran a way to play a large role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. It used its influence to galvanize Hamas for war with Israel.

Now, many think the Iranian “axis” is on the decline after having lost Syria, a key partner. The question is, what will fill that vacuum?

Turkey and Qatar are rushing to reopen embassies in Damascus and grab a piece of the prize. Ankara says it could help train the forces of the new government. Jordan remains worried.

Julani will have to deal with the competing groups that want sway in Damascus. For now, he does not seem interested in meddling in neighboring countries.

Former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow did not lead to protests in Amman, Baghdad, or Ramallah. Many leaders in the region are aging, however, and they represent an older era.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was born in the 1930s and was already a middle-aged man during the height of the Cold War. Nabih Berri, the Shi’ite leader in Lebanon, is also a product of the 1930s.Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader in Lebanon, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are both in their 70s. Egyptian leader Abdel Fatah al-Sisi was born in 1954. The formative experiences of these leaders were in the 1980s, and they are products of the Cold War era.

A new generation of leaders gone?

That does not mean they cannot be good leaders, but it inevitably means that they are not aligned with the new generation.

The Hamas terrorists who plunged the region into war with the October 7 massacre destroyed the opportunities of a whole generation. They did it for themselves so that leaders Khaled Mashaal, Ismail Haniyeh, and Yahya Sinwar could feel good about themselves before their deaths and see one more pile of bodies before they leave this vale of tears.

That is what they did: They destroyed Gaza for their own vain.

Julani may have a different view of the region than those who have thrived on war and destruction. He surely knows war, having lived it for the past two decades.

Perhaps he will not glory in it as Hamas’s and Turkey’s leaders have done or fan the flames of it as Qatar and Iran have?

This remains to be seen because it is also possible that he will seek new adventurous causes, as young people tend to do. He now has a choice, as do others, to form a new regional leadership.The new leadership in Damascus could say goodbye to the wars driven by Iran, Russia, Turkey, Hamas, Qatar, and others. They could embrace peace, unlike Haniyeh and former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. This is the choice.