Should Israel start preparing for the fall of Hamas in Gaza? - analysis

Recent reports have indicated that Hamas may be having an internal crisis at a time when surveys show there is less support for the group.

If the reports are at least partly based on the reality on the ground, Hamas could be at risk of falling apart in Gaza, requiring Israel to prepare for the end of Hamas rule.

A report from Saudi Arabia’s Elaph, picked up by Israel Hayom, quoted a Hamas official in Turkey saying, “Hamas is suffering from a genuine leadership crisis.

“The Aqsa Flood [October 7] attack backfired on us, submerging us in a sea of blood and crises. The most recent blow was the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, with which Hamas had been attempting to rebuild relations.”

Seemingly, this sentiment is being echoed by the Palestinian people as well.

A survey of 1,400 Palestinian adults in the West Bank, Gaza, and east Jerusalem in July and August prepared for the Tony Blair Institute asked, “Which entity would you prefer to govern Gaza immediately after the war?”

In Gaza, only 7% wanted Hamas to stay in power. In the West Bank, it was more.

What do these small bits of data point to?

A deal with Hamas could bolster the terror group, but it’s also possible that Hamas could be overthrown in a popular uprising, similar to what happened to the Assad regime.

Difficulties in overthrowing Hamas

One thing making it harder to overthrow Hamas, though, is the decision since the war began to move civilians in Gaza into areas controlled by Hamas.

There are around 2 million people in Gaza. Whenever they are evacuated, they move to areas run by Hamas. For instance, in October, the IDF launched an operation in Jabalya. The 70,000 people were asked to move from there into areas controlled by Hamas.

Despite the opportunities to do so, no attempt has been made in Gaza to create an alternative authority. When the IDF cut off parts of northern Gaza from Gaza City in October as it prepared to enter Jabalya, there was an opportunity to put a new governing authority in charge of Beit Lahiya, Beit Hanun, and other small areas.

This could have provided a test for a new authority. However, it is not clear what authority that would be. Israel appears reticent to rely on the Palestinian Authority because of fears it might unite the Palestinians or lead to Hamas gains in the West Bank.

The Palestinian National Security Forces have begun new operations in the West Bank.

“Over the past week, Palestinian security forces have intensified operations against terror groups in refugee camps across the West Bank,” Ynet reported. “On Saturday, exchanges of gunfire erupted in Tulkarm between armed groups and Palestinian forces. Meanwhile, both Tulkarm and Jenin saw protests supporting terror organizations, accompanied by tire burnings and demonstrations against the PA’s security actions.”

As the PA pushes forward, it could create a backlash. It’s possible that even if Hamas doesn’t fall, the PA could actually be in jeopardy.

Sources also say that Israel is concerned about the fallout from Syria affecting Jordan. Jordan supports the PA and has airdropped aid to Gaza.

Meanwhile, the US has asked Israel to facilitate the transfer of military equipment to the PA amid its attempt to crackdown on terrorists in Jenin. A PA success in Jenin could be a model for it to rule Gaza. But Israel probably does not want that.

This leaves a big gap in the question of what happens if Hamas falls or if there is an opening to remove it. In the absence of such a plan, it is likely Hamas will continue to rule Gaza.