Why are the Houthis attacking Israel - and can they be deterred? - analysis
The Houthis may think they can get away with anything without paying a price. The question is, what price is enough to make them stop?
The Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on Monday, the latest in their continued attempts to attack the country.They have used rockets and drones in attacks over the last months.
The Iranian-backed group does not appear to be backing down. On the contrary, it has kept up its assault despite other Iranian proxies receiving a drubbing from the Jewish state.Why are the Houthis still attacking? The group appears to believe that it is far enough away from the country that it would be hard for Israel to do to Yemen what was done to Hezbollah in Lebanon.For instance, Israel relies on precision airstrikes combined with ground operations in most cases. Israel cannot move ground forces to Yemen. Thus, the Houthis think they are safe in the mountains around Sanaa.They have used the same policy in their war on Saudi Arabia after Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015. Eventually, the war stopped, and the Houthis became stronger, fighting Saudi Arabia. They fired many missiles at Riyadh and other areas during the war.
The Houthis have learned over the years that they can get away with these long-range attacks. It’s hard to stop the attacks as well. Without advanced warning, one cannot preempt a missile launch. Rockets can be prepared underground and then wheeled out on a truck and positioned for launch.
The difficulty stopping these types of long-range missiles was discovered decades ago during the 1991 Gulf War. President Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq fired Scud missiles at Tel Aviv. The US-led coalition that was at war with Saddam attempted to find the Scud launchers. This became known as the “great Scud hunt” but was largely unsuccessful.
Saddam’s Scuds were mostly located in a desert, primarily in western Iraq’s Anbar Province. Yet, it was hard to find them. The Houthis have progressed in missile technology since then, backed by Iran.
Houthi attacks on Israel
Yesterday, the Houthi attack affected an area of some two million people in and around Tel Aviv. Later, the US Central Command said it carried out a “precision airstrike against a key command and control facility operated by the Iran-backed Houthis within Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa, Yemen.“The targeted facility was a hub for coordinating Houthi operations, such as attacks against US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”This airstrike was important. However, precision airstrikes are not likely to deter the Houthis. They have resources underground, and they are willing to wait it out.The question then becomes whether a new tactic might work. Can the Houthis be stopped by targeting their leadership the way the Hezbollah leadership was eviscerated in airstrikes? It’s possible this might have an effect. It doesn’t seem the Saudis or others tried this in the past.Indeed, the Houthis have become incredibly arrogant. They may think they can get away with anything. So, the question is, what will make them stop?
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